Insurgents 102112

Throughout history regimes have battled insurgents while failing to understand insurgencies. An insurgent basically objects to demands for political correctness and resulting insurgencies become internal in origin, a product of the regime’s missteps. 

A foreign power may attempt to create an insurgency as a cheap method of achieving its goals, but these attempts end in costly failures.  A coup can be foreign in origin but they have a shallow base and may well result in an insurgency forming against the new order.  An insurgency may also result from the government’s failure to satisfy the desires of major segments of the population.   It may take considerable time before governing leaders and their foreign sponsors notice this insurgent environment. 

Generally an insurgency is well established before any reactionary counter-insurgency measures begin.  Local resistance leaders emerge while government actions alienate segments of the population.  Counter-insurgency programs become increasingly oppressive, even draconian, which aids in recruitment of even more resistance fighters.

Although a foreign power can’t create an insurgency it can provide material and political support.  This support is not free; the powers expect a return on their investment.  The returns are political influence, access to resources or just the satisfaction of embarrassing a rival power.  This recurring scenario cost millions of lives during the “Cold War Era” as rival great powers sponsored coups, counter-coups, and insurgencies in obscure corners of the globe.

The cold war ended in the late 20th century, almost a quarter century ago, but still resonates among its victims.   As the crossroad of Asia, Afghanistan has probably suffered the most from great power competitions.  Throughout the 19th and 20th century British, Russians, American and Soviets played a “Great Game”. When the Soviets withdrew the Americans walked out leaving a vicious civil war fueled with piles of left over weapons. Corrupt, competing warlords battled and exploited the people until an insurgent religious army of young students (Taliban) brought a degree of stability to the isolated country.  Arab veterans of cold war battles remained in the mountains directing another insurgency against the Saudi government, supported by America, that also became its target.  

Although the Taliban was in negotiations to evict the Arabs the slow pace led to an American invasion now targeting the Taliban.  Installing a corrupt central government America prohibited all dealings with the Taliban.  The foreign occupation, corrupt government, cultural assaults and deaths of thousands of innocents soon generated a number of new insurgent groups.  Failing to understand what was happening the Americans lumped all resistance groups under the label of “Taliban.” Facing defeat after 11 years of war America is seeking to disengage, now calling for negotiations with the demonized Taliban.  Both the Taliban and Government, as well as other insurgent groups, expect that when America again walks away, another multi-faceted civil war will ensue.

Deluding itself, by pointing to press photos of smiling Afghans, America fails to understand that it has trained and armed; insurgents, private armies along with the national force.  The reality is, that as long as the gifts keep coming Afghans will stand in line, smile and pose for pictures.   When the well dries up so will the smiles and competing interest will again carve up the country.  Left on its own it is probable that a new anti-corruption insurgency will eventually arise, possibly more liberal than the old Taliban.  It equally as likely that an even more fundamentalist insurgency will emerge with America squarely in it’s sights.

Afghanistan has a few flashing lights on the horizon; New Russia and China have expressed interest in helping the country.  New resources have been discovered.  India has also expressed an interest, partly with aid, partly for resources and largely to surround its own enemy, Pakistan.  Resistance to a new great game waged by the world’s three largest nations may ultimately unite Afghanistan.