William Blum spoke on "American Exceptionalism and US Foreign Policy" at a teach-in on US foreign policy at the American University in Washington, DC, on September 6, 2014. His talk is worth a look up but to long for a restatement here. He points out the chasm between America's public perceptions of its foreign policies and world realities generating resistance to Americanization. He doesn't actually condemn American policies; it is more of an indictment of the hypocrisy of government disinformation aimed at the American people. Sampling his examples it is easier to understand why the United States has become a favored target of the international community, dissidents, radicals and disenfranchised terror. ###
Scholar and former Australian diplomat Kadira Pethiyagoda used WWI's anniversary to note some current parallels and present an argument for understanding cultural differences. His similarities note that States are again pushing the boundaries of international law, acting unilaterally to control territory, and that new international players are in the wings with wealth and capabilities, hungry for their share. He argues that today is a multipolarity society including Asia, South America and Africa. WWI was an explosion of a single Euro-centric culture; the 21st century is already one of cultures in conflict. Western foreign policy in the 20th century was based Game Theory's rational actors. Simply put policies are based on how the policy makers themselves would react. A multipolar world is one of multi-value choices that may appear irrational to western politicians but quite reasonable to regional policy makers. Failure to adjust polices to cultural understandings will exasperate relations and may eclipse current realities. Before America eclipsed England Winston Churchill noted that the Americans and British were a common people divided by a common language. ###
In Europe cultural xenophobia is apparently again becoming a tool of rightist politics. Immigrations into the once homogenous countries presents blame game opportunities for power grabs. It is interesting that the much-diminished European Jewish populations are again the focus of hate politics. Yascha Mounk argues that this is the result of resentment against Jews, as reminders of European Christian complicity in the Holocaust. Muslim immigrants to Europe with a long history of Jewish tolerance (not to be confused with Israelis) appear to be more acceptant than native Christians. Rightist are attempting to create conflict between Muslims and Jews to demonstrate the dangers posed by non-European values that are not compatible to European culture. Unlike western cultures with long histories immigration and assimilation Europe remained free of multiculturalism. With the post war colonial collapse many natives immigrated to the "home" countries and were followed by large masses seeking economic and political freedoms. Faced with a cultural flood of strange foods, practices and dress the newcomers are shuffled off to new ghettos that they find difficult to leave. In face of their strangeness and isolation most European do not accept that immigrants can ever integrate into their European culture. This xenophobia provides fertile ground for politicians on the right to leverage their way to power. In America the Irish, Italians and Poles initially faced similar experiences but their assimilation provided a much richer culture. Failure to accept assimilation is the doorway to victimization and terror. ###
Thursday, September 25, 2014
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
AF Catch up 092214
In July the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction John Sopko gave and interview shattering rose colored views of Afghan assistance programs.
According to Sopko, American aid was used to buy speedboats for a country with no coast and little navigable water, planted crops with no markets and over Afghan objections. Sent more money on reconstruction than the Marshall Plan for all of Europe.
Sopko points out rampant corruption among Afghan and U.S. officials as well as just plain incompetence in program management, leading to billions of assistance dollars wasted. His litany goes on: building schools that fall down, clinics with no doctors, roads with built in potholes and that the Afghans can't afford the government and infrastructure America "knows best" has force on them. No one asked the Afghans and there was little independent oversight provided. According to Sopko some $20 billion is still in the pipeline with and an expected $6-8 billion annually for the foreseeable future.
Another concern is the counter narcotics aid resulting in more acres under poppies than before the U.S. invasion. Opium production is up as well and a new Afghan addiction problem. Sopko states his job is not to be "a cheerleader" of U.S. programs but to protect taxpayer dollars, the Afghans already know where the money was wasted.
Sopko didn't mention the millions spent over 12 years to retrain a warrior culture that now can't fight. The U.S. is pushing ahead on a $500 million refurbishment of the Kajaki dam, already ten years behind schedule but touted to be an Afghan cure-all. America built the dam in the 1950s but it produced little electricity, even that trickle ended 2001when the U.S. bombed its power lines. After 10 years of failure to bring the dam on line many Afghans have given up and even President Karzai said that the Dam is money wasted. Expectations are that once the military withdraws the last of the construction workers will flee. Even if the project is completed, Sopko reported in December that $12.8 million in sophisticated electricity distribution equipment is unused because the Afghan staff "lacks the technical and operational capacity to install and manage it." Just how much of the total foreign aid was wasted will probably never be known.
Without bean counters on the ground it is probable that future aid will disappear at an even greater rate. Without foreign aid it is probable that Afghanistan will fall back into chaos. With aid and oversight but without "America knows best" direction the Afghans just might be able to recover if given enough time. There are many smart and skilled Afghans; if they had been encouraged to produce needed products in native light industries, rather than soybeans, they might be ahead of the coming power curve. Poppy farmers could have been lured from the fields by higher wages for less labor. The Taliban might have been incorporated into government and moderated without the early U.S. opposition. What ifs of the past are non-productive but of great value in future planning. The question, is it too late for Afghanistan, can it be saved? China may step in but has it learned from America's missteps?
The clock is ticking, the model is Syria, was it all really Allah's will?
According to Sopko, American aid was used to buy speedboats for a country with no coast and little navigable water, planted crops with no markets and over Afghan objections. Sent more money on reconstruction than the Marshall Plan for all of Europe.
Sopko points out rampant corruption among Afghan and U.S. officials as well as just plain incompetence in program management, leading to billions of assistance dollars wasted. His litany goes on: building schools that fall down, clinics with no doctors, roads with built in potholes and that the Afghans can't afford the government and infrastructure America "knows best" has force on them. No one asked the Afghans and there was little independent oversight provided. According to Sopko some $20 billion is still in the pipeline with and an expected $6-8 billion annually for the foreseeable future.
Another concern is the counter narcotics aid resulting in more acres under poppies than before the U.S. invasion. Opium production is up as well and a new Afghan addiction problem. Sopko states his job is not to be "a cheerleader" of U.S. programs but to protect taxpayer dollars, the Afghans already know where the money was wasted.
Sopko didn't mention the millions spent over 12 years to retrain a warrior culture that now can't fight. The U.S. is pushing ahead on a $500 million refurbishment of the Kajaki dam, already ten years behind schedule but touted to be an Afghan cure-all. America built the dam in the 1950s but it produced little electricity, even that trickle ended 2001when the U.S. bombed its power lines. After 10 years of failure to bring the dam on line many Afghans have given up and even President Karzai said that the Dam is money wasted. Expectations are that once the military withdraws the last of the construction workers will flee. Even if the project is completed, Sopko reported in December that $12.8 million in sophisticated electricity distribution equipment is unused because the Afghan staff "lacks the technical and operational capacity to install and manage it." Just how much of the total foreign aid was wasted will probably never be known.
Without bean counters on the ground it is probable that future aid will disappear at an even greater rate. Without foreign aid it is probable that Afghanistan will fall back into chaos. With aid and oversight but without "America knows best" direction the Afghans just might be able to recover if given enough time. There are many smart and skilled Afghans; if they had been encouraged to produce needed products in native light industries, rather than soybeans, they might be ahead of the coming power curve. Poppy farmers could have been lured from the fields by higher wages for less labor. The Taliban might have been incorporated into government and moderated without the early U.S. opposition. What ifs of the past are non-productive but of great value in future planning. The question, is it too late for Afghanistan, can it be saved? China may step in but has it learned from America's missteps?
The clock is ticking, the model is Syria, was it all really Allah's will?
Monday, September 22, 2014
You too 050614
A satirical joke around Washington during the Second World War was that OSS stood for "Oh So Social." OSS was actually the acronym for the military's Office of Strategic Services, America's first spy agency. The joke referred to OSS's policy of recruiting heavily from the social networks of Ivy League universities.
Since that war social networks continued to cast long shadows on intelligence operations. The military's NSA is mining electronic networks and DOD funds "cultural" research in 57 foreign countries. It has not only been spying on most Americans but also foreign friends and allies. Nations cried foul and diplomatic violations but as some of the smoke cleared it became apparent that other governments were also socially spying. The Big Brothers sometimes shared information with cousins and leaves piles of exposed data.
Possibly in hopes of collecting data or spreading its message America funded social networks in Afghanistan (Paywast or "to connect' in Dari) and other countries, including Cuba. The Cuban operation was established in expectation of a Cuban Spring similar to the "Arab Spring" uprisings supposedly generated by social media. The Cuban operations failed and the Arab Spring quickly turned to winter as the western visions degenerated into coups and competing insurgencies that still have not stabilized.
Social networks are double-edged swords for intelligence. There is information to be captured and cultures to be influenced, but what one can do, so can others. It is easy to incite mob networks. It even easier for those mobs to be diverted in unexpected directions. NSA threatened providers with government power, extorting access and some degree of censorship of web media. It appears that China and Russia exercises even greater censorship of their media outlets. Social media is not the haven of free speech, often conceals hidden agendas, Big Brother does watch and is multiplying.
Social mobs, once incited, flow around and through firewalls spreading their own messages. There is no surety that information is true, either misinformation (false) or disinformation (deception). Much of the content may be below backyard rumors but it may serve individual or organizational purposes ranging from demonization to eulogizing. Bogus Chinese accounts were used to threaten Chinese terrorism and the ISIS (IS, ISL) and Al-Shabab uses Social Media to inflate their violence, strength and influence. Some of these radical accounts disappear (possibly blocked or to evade tracking) only to reappear under new names with different links to new services.
Social media facilitates social interaction, but also theo-political reactions. Attempts to spin, censor or shutdown are destined to fail at the hands of the world's tech-smart. ISIS is creating armies of Twitter-bots to rapidly inflate its power and reach. Don't "friend" the unfriendly and don't believe all you read. There is already enough who will spread skewed messages that influence and incite.
Remember that it is still possible to meet, have coffee and discuss with real people.
Since that war social networks continued to cast long shadows on intelligence operations. The military's NSA is mining electronic networks and DOD funds "cultural" research in 57 foreign countries. It has not only been spying on most Americans but also foreign friends and allies. Nations cried foul and diplomatic violations but as some of the smoke cleared it became apparent that other governments were also socially spying. The Big Brothers sometimes shared information with cousins and leaves piles of exposed data.
Possibly in hopes of collecting data or spreading its message America funded social networks in Afghanistan (Paywast or "to connect' in Dari) and other countries, including Cuba. The Cuban operation was established in expectation of a Cuban Spring similar to the "Arab Spring" uprisings supposedly generated by social media. The Cuban operations failed and the Arab Spring quickly turned to winter as the western visions degenerated into coups and competing insurgencies that still have not stabilized.
Social networks are double-edged swords for intelligence. There is information to be captured and cultures to be influenced, but what one can do, so can others. It is easy to incite mob networks. It even easier for those mobs to be diverted in unexpected directions. NSA threatened providers with government power, extorting access and some degree of censorship of web media. It appears that China and Russia exercises even greater censorship of their media outlets. Social media is not the haven of free speech, often conceals hidden agendas, Big Brother does watch and is multiplying.
Social mobs, once incited, flow around and through firewalls spreading their own messages. There is no surety that information is true, either misinformation (false) or disinformation (deception). Much of the content may be below backyard rumors but it may serve individual or organizational purposes ranging from demonization to eulogizing. Bogus Chinese accounts were used to threaten Chinese terrorism and the ISIS (IS, ISL) and Al-Shabab uses Social Media to inflate their violence, strength and influence. Some of these radical accounts disappear (possibly blocked or to evade tracking) only to reappear under new names with different links to new services.
Social media facilitates social interaction, but also theo-political reactions. Attempts to spin, censor or shutdown are destined to fail at the hands of the world's tech-smart. ISIS is creating armies of Twitter-bots to rapidly inflate its power and reach. Don't "friend" the unfriendly and don't believe all you read. There is already enough who will spread skewed messages that influence and incite.
Remember that it is still possible to meet, have coffee and discuss with real people.
Saturday, September 20, 2014
Fracturing 091914
The news of the day is that Scotland voted NO to independence, which in effect would be the end of the United Kingdom. Pundits point to a ten-point spread on independence, however only a five- percent switch could have changed the outcome. In its largest voter turnout almost half of the Scots want freedom from England. The tipping point may have been last minute British promises to voters to do better.
Now that the vote is in it remains to be seen if England will honor its word. With ample examples of British Parliamentary duplicity, that saw the sun set on a Great Empire, it's possible the dominoes will fall in future calls for independence in the UK. The result would be a series of city-states seeking alliances anywhere but with England. Long past its world power greatness of the 19th century England would be forced to face reality surrendering its seat on the UN Security Council, which might lead to a UN Charter rewrite in favor of greater power and equity for small states.
The world order may become a world reorder as old nation states are faced with increasing internal demands for independence. With some adjustments the present order dates from the 17th century Treaties of Westphalia, which gave rise to nation states. In the wake of World Wars most colonial empires broke up as a series of mini-states when small groups declared independence. When the last great Empire (The Soviet Union) began to splinter the west was euphoric and pushed eastward to humiliate and punishing the Russians. Much of Africa and Asia are now fragmenting in bloody Theo-political revolutionary battles. At first the West saw energy source opportunities but quickly became embroiled in multiple insurgencies without gaining oil. The West tended to ignore causations as long as the stresses were on the other side of the globe but with the Scottish vote analyst began to recognize systemic flaws.
In addition to UK; Canada, Spain, China and even the United States have independence movements. The nation state establishment has responded either by suppression or ignoring causations as anger mounts and governments appear incapable of governing. Russia seized an opportunity to try for its former Ukrainian colony, chopping off pieces. Under the cover of the War on Terror, Britain made another attempt to colonize Afghanistan by attempting installation of Colonial Political Officers in its Providences. Afghans quickly saw through this subterfuge and distanced itself from the occupying Coalition. China appears to be attempting the velvet fist in its northwest. Playing partisan politics the clueless American Congress ignores the dynamic nature on independence movements at home and abroad. Around the globe there is a distinct move to the right.
This swing to the right possibly heralds the coming of small totalitarian regimes. Internal conflicts are spilling across borders. Playing the social media like clarion horns ideologues recruit fighters from many countries that eventually will return home socialized as revolutionaries. Competing warring crowds may replace nation states as the new order following prolonged bloody conflicts. Nation states must reform or die by violence of an interactive global war.
Now that the vote is in it remains to be seen if England will honor its word. With ample examples of British Parliamentary duplicity, that saw the sun set on a Great Empire, it's possible the dominoes will fall in future calls for independence in the UK. The result would be a series of city-states seeking alliances anywhere but with England. Long past its world power greatness of the 19th century England would be forced to face reality surrendering its seat on the UN Security Council, which might lead to a UN Charter rewrite in favor of greater power and equity for small states.
The world order may become a world reorder as old nation states are faced with increasing internal demands for independence. With some adjustments the present order dates from the 17th century Treaties of Westphalia, which gave rise to nation states. In the wake of World Wars most colonial empires broke up as a series of mini-states when small groups declared independence. When the last great Empire (The Soviet Union) began to splinter the west was euphoric and pushed eastward to humiliate and punishing the Russians. Much of Africa and Asia are now fragmenting in bloody Theo-political revolutionary battles. At first the West saw energy source opportunities but quickly became embroiled in multiple insurgencies without gaining oil. The West tended to ignore causations as long as the stresses were on the other side of the globe but with the Scottish vote analyst began to recognize systemic flaws.
In addition to UK; Canada, Spain, China and even the United States have independence movements. The nation state establishment has responded either by suppression or ignoring causations as anger mounts and governments appear incapable of governing. Russia seized an opportunity to try for its former Ukrainian colony, chopping off pieces. Under the cover of the War on Terror, Britain made another attempt to colonize Afghanistan by attempting installation of Colonial Political Officers in its Providences. Afghans quickly saw through this subterfuge and distanced itself from the occupying Coalition. China appears to be attempting the velvet fist in its northwest. Playing partisan politics the clueless American Congress ignores the dynamic nature on independence movements at home and abroad. Around the globe there is a distinct move to the right.
This swing to the right possibly heralds the coming of small totalitarian regimes. Internal conflicts are spilling across borders. Playing the social media like clarion horns ideologues recruit fighters from many countries that eventually will return home socialized as revolutionaries. Competing warring crowds may replace nation states as the new order following prolonged bloody conflicts. Nation states must reform or die by violence of an interactive global war.
Monday, September 15, 2014
Again? 091314
The first global war was Napoleonic at the turn of 18th century. While centered on Europe that war ranged the seven seas touching the Americas, Africa, Asia and even Antarctica. The rest of the 19th century was anything but peaceful but warfare was mostly limited to colonial battles and regional wars. The twentieth century is notable for three global wars, the Great War, renamed 20 years later as the world did a retake titled the Second World War, quickly followed by very hot Cold War battles.
Even the 14th century's Black Death toll is eclipsed by twentieth century's, still tabulating "Butcher's Bill." The 21st century promises to be even bloodier. War began quickly against terrorism, added political objectives only served to destabilize and spread terror.
Western strategic moves encouraged Russian attempts to recover its colonial territories. The West has just declare a new war on the Islam (ISIS, IS, ISIL) each interpretation an expansion of the arena. The Catholic Pope, calling for peace, foresees an incremental approach to World War Three. What the Pope may see but is afraid to acknowledge are the opening shots of a religious war of zealots feeding on unfounded xenophobic fears rather than limited traditional political or territorial objectives. WW III may become one of annihilation as every new extremist draws in followers in competition for supremacy.
Having failed in Afghanistan and Iraq the Americans are attempting to organized proxy-armies to support their latest declaration. The plans are to drop massive amounts of weapons and training on any insurgents proclaiming support of American ideals.
Proxy armies are not a new, the Persians, Romans and Colonial Imperialist armed and trained proxies. During the Cold War era both protagonist dumped sophisticated weaponry on remote natives hoping for ideological advantages. Over time the outcomes have been the same, native resistance, insurgencies, internal competitions and warlordism. Rome's proxies splintered Roman rule and drove Europe into a dark age.
America has no need to look further than Afghanistan where former cold war proxies propelled it into its bloodiest period, from which it has yet to recover. The west took sides in Africa, Iraq and Syria leading to Islamic spillover and competing insurgents.
Nor are religious wars unique, over the centuries more than 30 million people may have died for religion. While extremely brutal, theocentric warfare has been limited, but technology now expands Theo-war's reach. Once remote voices of fundamentalist and idealist are now able to reach around the world to recruit and demonize by use of Internet and social media. Generations of mutual demonization will prevent any equitable resolution resulting only in mutual annihilation.
By the turn of the 21st century the few survivors of Theo-war may be able to prevent a new dark age by learning to live together in a shattered ecosystem. It may be to late to prevent WW III but an attempt must be made to stop pouring gas on a growing fire.
Continued demonization can only result in the creation of ever more demons.
Even the 14th century's Black Death toll is eclipsed by twentieth century's, still tabulating "Butcher's Bill." The 21st century promises to be even bloodier. War began quickly against terrorism, added political objectives only served to destabilize and spread terror.
Western strategic moves encouraged Russian attempts to recover its colonial territories. The West has just declare a new war on the Islam (ISIS, IS, ISIL) each interpretation an expansion of the arena. The Catholic Pope, calling for peace, foresees an incremental approach to World War Three. What the Pope may see but is afraid to acknowledge are the opening shots of a religious war of zealots feeding on unfounded xenophobic fears rather than limited traditional political or territorial objectives. WW III may become one of annihilation as every new extremist draws in followers in competition for supremacy.
Having failed in Afghanistan and Iraq the Americans are attempting to organized proxy-armies to support their latest declaration. The plans are to drop massive amounts of weapons and training on any insurgents proclaiming support of American ideals.
Proxy armies are not a new, the Persians, Romans and Colonial Imperialist armed and trained proxies. During the Cold War era both protagonist dumped sophisticated weaponry on remote natives hoping for ideological advantages. Over time the outcomes have been the same, native resistance, insurgencies, internal competitions and warlordism. Rome's proxies splintered Roman rule and drove Europe into a dark age.
America has no need to look further than Afghanistan where former cold war proxies propelled it into its bloodiest period, from which it has yet to recover. The west took sides in Africa, Iraq and Syria leading to Islamic spillover and competing insurgents.
Nor are religious wars unique, over the centuries more than 30 million people may have died for religion. While extremely brutal, theocentric warfare has been limited, but technology now expands Theo-war's reach. Once remote voices of fundamentalist and idealist are now able to reach around the world to recruit and demonize by use of Internet and social media. Generations of mutual demonization will prevent any equitable resolution resulting only in mutual annihilation.
By the turn of the 21st century the few survivors of Theo-war may be able to prevent a new dark age by learning to live together in a shattered ecosystem. It may be to late to prevent WW III but an attempt must be made to stop pouring gas on a growing fire.
Continued demonization can only result in the creation of ever more demons.
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