Far East

Old player returns to the field

Twenty years ago western pundits and politicians were gleefully expounding on the imminent collapse of China (PRC). Today many of those same pundits and politicians are decrying that the Chinese are the ultimate threat to the western way of life out to conquer the world.

China was never at risk of collapse but was going through a period of liberalization. Not in the sense of becoming a so called liberal society but rather a society assessing its future and adapting to new dynamics, a transition of methodology not strategy. Many commentators have noted that China takes a long view of development. The west on the other hand takes an imperialist, conservative view of looking to its past and perceived greatness. In North America strategic planning extends only to the next poll.

Unlike the former Soviet Union, which was considered a great power, based only on a measure of its military power, China’s growing power is more balance with the potential of real great power status. China is not only rich in human capital but also natural resources. Chinese leadership is leveraging its riches through education and investment in industrial and economic growth. Historic Chinese innovation may well pale beside it innovative potential for the future.

The ultimate Chinese great power strategy from a western perspective is speculative but there are indicators of its direction. China is reaching outside its traditional region of influence. Both through diplomatic initiatives, direct investments and foreign aid China is expanding its influence through Asia, Africa and South America. There is no question that this is in the long-term interest of China, but also supports regional development in areas ignored by former great powers’ competition.

Some western leaders are in the process, reminiscent of the east-west cold war conflict, of demonizing China’s intentions. The world can not afford another period of great power conflict, which wasted great human and material wealth in nonproductive endeavors. The forgotten regions of the world stand to gain from China’s development initiatives. These long ignored areas are rich in resources and can with effort be transformed into contributing members of 21st century world order.

It is not in the interest of that world order to attempt to prevent China’s outreach. Scholars of international power have long hypothesized on world power shifts. The measures of power evolve with emerging technologies and power is finite. It is in the interest of all that power be shared, or else it may be lost to those looking forward rather than backward.

China at the moment is at a juncture. China has the resources to become a competitor for power in this century but it also can become an international partner for innovation, growth and solutions to the inherent stresses of the world.

frank

development

The time is now
Centers of Regional Development
Dr. Frank ©2008

Global influence

The international community (IC) is faced with political failures in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as deteriorating regional stability around the globe. The rationalizations for declining stability are many. There is the blame game, “someone else is at fault”, and the solutions game, “do it our way--or else.” Both models fail to consider regional solutions for regional challenges. The IC’s power elite refuses to acknowledge that it is long past the time that they should be concerned with the aspirations and expectations of local cultures.

Western packaged solutions do not necessarily fit all western challenges, so why does the west demand that these theoretical solutions be accepted by foreign cultures?

As western populations age the majority of the developing world’s population is under 20 with the aspirations and expectations of youth. Young populations present local leadership with a myriad of challenges but also provides basic resources for future solutions. There are no western monopolies on brainpower, there are bright peoples in every culture. Many, however, are hampered by their past, poor educational system, colonialism followed by misguided local leadership. It is time to apply regional human resources to regional challenges for regional solutions.

Centers of regional development can bring together local social and physical scientist with public administrators to collect regional data, study real challenges and produce needed practical solutions. Such centers would not only be regional think tanks providing innovative leadership but also educational institutions for critically thinking new generations of regional problem solvers.
Baggage from the past influences future

The 19th century was the age of colonialism; powerful early nation state competition led to occupation and subjugation of vast territories and populations. The 20th century brought neo-colonial competition for resources into conflict with the emerging nationalism of colonized populations. Despite professed lofty idealism by the great powers during the 20th century their struggles for power forced nationalist to chose sides between foreign cultures. During the 19th and 20th centuries the powerful had little inclination to prepare the subjugated for sharing of the world’s wealth or power.

The turn of the 21st century found a world in transition. Ragged victory was claimed in the two centuries of great power struggles on the basis of last man standing. Human aspirations continue to fracture the old order while searching for alliances and new power blocks. The decaying old order offers the only model it knows, marketing a repackaged neo-colonialism of, ‘Become like us but still provide us your resources, it is best for you.” The old order provides lessons of value for aspirating populations. Many of those lessons however, are negative, what not to do. Any proposed western solutions require local cultural evaluation, modification, blending and filtration to fulfil the expectations and requirements of regional populations.
Genie out of the bottle

New measures of power are entering a technology world along an information highway that any can travel. That highway provides vast quantities of data but there are glaring cultural gaps in the existing research. Much of what passes for data in developing regions are little better than speculations based on western modeling, not real research. Assumptions are made on the basis of what is valid data for New York, London, or Paris must be valid for the world. Any broad conclusion based on these flawed assumptions fail to solve today’s challenges. New York, London, and Paris are distinct separate cultures. They display some metropolitan commonalties, the need to move, house, feed and protect great masses of people. Cities of smaller sizes exhibit some of the same commonalties on a lesser scale but they react with different priorities and resolve issues with great variety. Large and small metropolitan solutions however do not consider the needs of those that grow the food, drive the trucks or fight the fires.

Societal order requires strategic macro planning which in turn requires not only accurate data collection but also a high degree ethical evaluations. Attempting to turn macro research into operationalistic public management has limits. The collapse of the Soviet system of governance was due in part attempts to apply its central planning model to all state requirements. Central planning begins to feed upon itself producing biased data that supports the plan rather than honest research that identifies regional issues for regional solutions.

Western powers, international organizations and NGOs provides assistance to states under stress. Often however, the assistance provided reflects the biases of the providers. High tech solutions are pressed on low-tech cultures that are in need of simple and culturally sensitive solutions. Sophisticated equipment is donated when the requirements can often be better served with a bicycle response.

The problem is??

The first principle of scientific methodology to problem solving is to identify the problem. Scientists often must develop hypotheses based on limited data. Such hypotheses are neither the problem nor a solution but rather a starting point for further research and testing to discover the true problem and workable solutions.

Centers for regional development must have both legitimacy and political independence to earn respect as ethical sources of information. Such centers are strategic tools for good governance and regional stability. Regional leadership must plan for the future while studying the past and present data. Issues of human need, geographical opportunities and constraints as well as regional cooperation and interactions provide the input but it is the critical thinking skills of the human resources that provides solutions for today and basis of future growth.

Centers should be established with political independence but with a voice in the political processes. Funding may come from the international community but the organization should be regional in leadership with demonstrated integrity. Possibly linked to the regional higher education system where the best students may not only learn future skills but also apply themselves to solving real regional issues. Global stability depends of regional stability, regional stability can only come from application of regional solutions based on the culture aspirations and need of regional populations.

Introduction

Social Scientists spend a great deal of their time researching minute details within their respective disciplines. They then extrapolate the resulting data into some broad hypotheses that project potential facts for global concern. Ignoring that hypotheses are theories to be tested, biased international leaders attempt to apply the theoretical as global reality.

Social engineering, game theories, and to a large degree political absolutism are based on the flawed assumptions that it is a world of one. There are some global natural laws that apply; everyone needs air to breath, water to drink and food to eat, beyond that it is a world of six billion plus individuals with differing interest, needs and reactions.

Globalism is limited by human nature, which embraces or rejects collectivism, individualism and foreign cultural intrusions.