Quagmire 083009

The Obama administration inherited its Afghan Quagmire from its predecessor and now recognizes the war for what it is a muddy hole. President Obama also inherited a bureaucracy vested in failed policies and corrupted Afghan data, which skews his search for solutions.

Harvard Prof. Stephen Walt argues that the President’s justification for expansion of the Afghan war should be viewed with skepticism. The skepticism is not due to the President’s lack of desire for a solution but to the military’s recommended course of action of even greater buildup next year on top of this year’s total of 68,000 U.S. Troops. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has stated the situation in Afghanistan is “serious and deteriorating.” The President stated that, “The insurgency in Afghanistan didn’t just happen overnight, and we won’t defeat it overnight.”

They are both right but the difficulty is that it was military policies that turned a victory into a growing insurgency. It is the rhetoric used to justify continued buildup that should be of concern. Its American State terror targeting American people with calls for arms against new al-Qaeda, attacks if the United States doesn’t defeat the Taliban. The Taliban began as a fundamentalist anti-corruption movement that brought a degree of peace and stability to a war torn country. The Taliban was never al-Qaeda nor did they have similar objectives but after eight years of occupation now share a common enemy. Many Afghan dissents and political interest are now sheltered under the Taliban unbrella. An umbrella that is an honest to God homegrown insurgency of many colors becoming more capable as a resistance movement against Americanization.

Insurgencies are hard defeat and America has wide experience and a great deal of frustration in its attempts. It took over 200 years to defeat the Indian and that by total war on a peoples. America continues its over 100 year, on again off again, struggle against Philippine insurgents. It took over 20 years for America to finally declare victory in Indo-China deserting its indigenous friends to an enemy it could not defeat. In each of these insurgencies as well as the present one the objective was to social engineer little American governments without regard to local customs or the desires of the people that democracy is suppose to represent.

Many Afghans look nostalgically at the Soviet occupation as more benign than the current American one. The Afghan people will determine the fate of Afghanistan. It is probable that Russia and China will continue their rolls of Afghan friends and the American post war roll will be limited.

Is it possible to turn things around? Of course but not by a military solution. The military destroys things well, roads, bridges, villages and friendships. The sooner the administration realizes this the more chance there is of an Afghan acceptable lasting solution to insurgency. Successful counter-insurgency doctrine is equitable negotiation rather than force. Voices of the all Afghans must be heard not just the voices of those that profit from the occupation.