With an administration that appears to be flailing around without direction topics are coming faster than reasoned analysis. Two issues requiring study came up in the same week, another expansion of the wars in Asia and the attempt to shut down an investigation of Russian attempts to influence democratic elections to its advantage.
1) U.S. policies and eventual military interventions destabilized the Middle East. Once the "DOGS OF WAR" were unleashed the region discovered the contagion of war as diverse aspirations came in to conflict. Arming the Kurds will be like tossing a stone into a pond as Kurdish nationalism spreads from Syria to Turkey, Iraq and Iran into parts of the former soviet republics. Political actions by outsiders without a coherent strategy spreads conflict and ends in failure.
2) Despite denials there is little doubt that the Russians attempted to influence the 2016 U.S. election and the administration is seriously compromised. The question is just how far does the contamination extends? The firing of the FBI director appears to be a reaction to an investigation that is getting close to the White House.
It is interesting that the firing came shortly after Russia's Putin condemned the investigation. Despite a meeting with Russian officials shortly after the head of the investigation was thrown out, it is doubtful that Trump is a Russian agent, he doesn't play well with others.
It must be remembered that Trump has been attempting to expand his real estate empire into Russia for years, is there a quid pro quo for policies that favor Russian interests? A Moscow Trump Tower and St. Petersburg golf course for the newly affluent could be a great inducement. Even before the election Trump advocated the destruction of the European Union and NATO with positions that support Russian objectives.
America is not alone in the Russian swamp both Britain and France have recently experienced Russian attempts to influence national elections. Despite endorsements from both Putin and Trump the French nationalist lost the election to a candidate supporting the EU, but France is also investigating Russian attempt to influence its election. In England an upcoming election affecting the British exit from the EU may also be a target for Russian influence hacking.
Congress must exercise its independence before it becomes a rubber stamp for policies originating in the Kremlin. An independent investigation of global influence peddling is necessary to determine to what extent elections were influenced by hacking to insure that democratic processes are not disrupted in the future. Investigators must be given the authority and tools to follow the case wherever the evidence leads. The investigation must also be protected from partisan disruption; as the fox is already in the hen house.
Showing posts with label Europe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Europe. Show all posts
Thursday, May 11, 2017
Sunday, October 4, 2015
Displaced 092915
The news of the day is that Europe is facing a migrant crisis. Reality is that the crisis lies deep in Africa and Asia where displaced began to seek stability and safety in Europe.
Germany enacted the most liberal refugee and immigration policies in post WWII, opening its doors not only to Europeans but also the displaced from other lands. The present masses of displaced however find the German door hard to open. European nations are attempting to bar their doors in face of a growing migration. Border States are accepting the displaced from humanitarian concerns but are unable support the large influx or pass the migrants through locked doors while States debate the crisis.
The Twentieth Century was the century of displaced brought about by major wars and global economic depression. World War One displaced masses not only in Europe but also Africa and Asia. The Bolshevik Revolution added Russians to long lines trudging across Europe and Far East. Before these refugees were settled a global financial meltdown swelled to ranks of displace. Chinese and Spaniards joined the march while the depression was still generating wanderers. The States created by the Versailles treaty were unstable, sending more people in search of safety. Japan invaded Asia already at war with itself and the political collateral damage was more displaced. The classic displaced haven was the United States but even it was beginning to limit immigration. Without options the displaced wandered, living a marginal life to survive. Then came WWII where countries were destroyed with survivors becoming the new global displaced. WWII did not really end but became a cold war of very hot proxy wars with more displaced from remote regions, swelling the ranks of the unwanted.
It is probable that there will never be a reliable estimate of the vast numbers of Twentieth Century's displaced. Whole families died along the road; often no one was left to count. Others just disappeared, some resettled in their own countries, and still others were lost in foreign lands. The United States deludes itself that it can never happen there, but it has during the great dust bowl and depression along with ethnic cleansing of minorities.
That's the last century, the displaced of this century might exceed its flawed estimates. Great power politics and war has already sent millions of displaced wandering in search of a home. They are met with little sympathy even hostility as they arrive on to distant shores. The problem is not resettlement of the displaced but rather addressing the dynamics that forced them to take extreme measures to survive.
As they wander across the landscape even more villages are bombed daily swelling the endless stream. Disease and poverty are rampant in remote regions. Nations complaining of the masses at their door should address the causations that forced migration. Stop destroying cities and villages, assist peace, health and development efforts in regions generating much of the migrations. With the right turn and militarization within the developed States this is unlikely in the short term. Their humanitarianism wears thin and migrants are told to move on, they and their culture is unwanted.
Germany enacted the most liberal refugee and immigration policies in post WWII, opening its doors not only to Europeans but also the displaced from other lands. The present masses of displaced however find the German door hard to open. European nations are attempting to bar their doors in face of a growing migration. Border States are accepting the displaced from humanitarian concerns but are unable support the large influx or pass the migrants through locked doors while States debate the crisis.
The Twentieth Century was the century of displaced brought about by major wars and global economic depression. World War One displaced masses not only in Europe but also Africa and Asia. The Bolshevik Revolution added Russians to long lines trudging across Europe and Far East. Before these refugees were settled a global financial meltdown swelled to ranks of displace. Chinese and Spaniards joined the march while the depression was still generating wanderers. The States created by the Versailles treaty were unstable, sending more people in search of safety. Japan invaded Asia already at war with itself and the political collateral damage was more displaced. The classic displaced haven was the United States but even it was beginning to limit immigration. Without options the displaced wandered, living a marginal life to survive. Then came WWII where countries were destroyed with survivors becoming the new global displaced. WWII did not really end but became a cold war of very hot proxy wars with more displaced from remote regions, swelling the ranks of the unwanted.
It is probable that there will never be a reliable estimate of the vast numbers of Twentieth Century's displaced. Whole families died along the road; often no one was left to count. Others just disappeared, some resettled in their own countries, and still others were lost in foreign lands. The United States deludes itself that it can never happen there, but it has during the great dust bowl and depression along with ethnic cleansing of minorities.
That's the last century, the displaced of this century might exceed its flawed estimates. Great power politics and war has already sent millions of displaced wandering in search of a home. They are met with little sympathy even hostility as they arrive on to distant shores. The problem is not resettlement of the displaced but rather addressing the dynamics that forced them to take extreme measures to survive.
As they wander across the landscape even more villages are bombed daily swelling the endless stream. Disease and poverty are rampant in remote regions. Nations complaining of the masses at their door should address the causations that forced migration. Stop destroying cities and villages, assist peace, health and development efforts in regions generating much of the migrations. With the right turn and militarization within the developed States this is unlikely in the short term. Their humanitarianism wears thin and migrants are told to move on, they and their culture is unwanted.
Friday, February 13, 2015
Russian way 021015
When the Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet Union began to implode there was dancing in western streets. Western politicians gleefully proclaimed the "Bear" was dead and rushed into Soviet Republics. The truth is the Bear wasn't dead, just hibernating.
Wearing Cold War blinders the politician failed to appreciate that while the Soviets overthrew the imperial regime it built on its Russian culture. Keeping many of the imperial institutions under new management the Soviets adjusted and modernized the Old Russian Empire. People went into imperial labor camps in even greater numbers, called Soviet Gulags, returning them to a virtual serfdom that powered modernization.
In the mid-1800 the Russian Empire stretched from California across northern Asia deep into Eastern Europe. In 1867 the United States purchased the Californian settlements and all of Alaska for 7.2 million dollars. The Tsars (Czars) built their empire in the traditional way: by sword, political threats and bribery. Imperialism settled ethnic Russian in newly acquired territories, displacing natives, insuring their control the regions. This provided justification for any future incursions as protection of Russian minorities. The ebb and flow of Eastern Europe politics during the imperial period is complicated. Basically during the 18th and 19th centuries Russia seized much of Ottoman Europe, the splintered parts of the Ukraine, Poland, and Baltic States to complete its modern empire. When the Soviets seized power in Russia some of the states drifted toward independence but the Soviets quickly brought them back into the Empire as Soviet Republics with tactics reminiscence of Czarist Cossacks.
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin's recent seizure of the Crimea is not a return to Soviet cold war strategy but rather a page out of the imperial Czarist playbook. Crimea was been taken from the Ottoman Turks in the mid-19th century and infused with Russians now considered to be historic Russian Territory. Putin's moves in the Ukraine (the largest country in Europe) also follows Czarist precedents, protecting Russians abused by the Ukrainian Slavs with patriotic "volunteers" defending the oppressed.
The West has a 100 percent record in understanding Russians, always wrong. The western model of foreign policy is a game for rational actors. The Russians have never been rational in the western sense but always act in a uniquely Russian manner as an imperialist amalgam of its Asian and European heritage.
It is probable that after nearly 20 years in the Russian power position Putin sees himself as the new Tsar. As "Putin the Great" he may feel driven to return the empire to its former glory. The world is focused on the Ukraine, which is classic imperial strategy of distraction, deception and attrition. Distraction from pressures placed on Eastern Europe, its southern border and deception in Greece and Egypt. Nothing is as it seems, historically Russia accepts cost that outweigh rewards. While the west contemplates giving away half of the Ukraine or destroying Europe in a scorched earth game of dominos Russia plays three-dimensional chess for an empire. It's the Russian Way.
Wearing Cold War blinders the politician failed to appreciate that while the Soviets overthrew the imperial regime it built on its Russian culture. Keeping many of the imperial institutions under new management the Soviets adjusted and modernized the Old Russian Empire. People went into imperial labor camps in even greater numbers, called Soviet Gulags, returning them to a virtual serfdom that powered modernization.
In the mid-1800 the Russian Empire stretched from California across northern Asia deep into Eastern Europe. In 1867 the United States purchased the Californian settlements and all of Alaska for 7.2 million dollars. The Tsars (Czars) built their empire in the traditional way: by sword, political threats and bribery. Imperialism settled ethnic Russian in newly acquired territories, displacing natives, insuring their control the regions. This provided justification for any future incursions as protection of Russian minorities. The ebb and flow of Eastern Europe politics during the imperial period is complicated. Basically during the 18th and 19th centuries Russia seized much of Ottoman Europe, the splintered parts of the Ukraine, Poland, and Baltic States to complete its modern empire. When the Soviets seized power in Russia some of the states drifted toward independence but the Soviets quickly brought them back into the Empire as Soviet Republics with tactics reminiscence of Czarist Cossacks.
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin's recent seizure of the Crimea is not a return to Soviet cold war strategy but rather a page out of the imperial Czarist playbook. Crimea was been taken from the Ottoman Turks in the mid-19th century and infused with Russians now considered to be historic Russian Territory. Putin's moves in the Ukraine (the largest country in Europe) also follows Czarist precedents, protecting Russians abused by the Ukrainian Slavs with patriotic "volunteers" defending the oppressed.
The West has a 100 percent record in understanding Russians, always wrong. The western model of foreign policy is a game for rational actors. The Russians have never been rational in the western sense but always act in a uniquely Russian manner as an imperialist amalgam of its Asian and European heritage.
It is probable that after nearly 20 years in the Russian power position Putin sees himself as the new Tsar. As "Putin the Great" he may feel driven to return the empire to its former glory. The world is focused on the Ukraine, which is classic imperial strategy of distraction, deception and attrition. Distraction from pressures placed on Eastern Europe, its southern border and deception in Greece and Egypt. Nothing is as it seems, historically Russia accepts cost that outweigh rewards. While the west contemplates giving away half of the Ukraine or destroying Europe in a scorched earth game of dominos Russia plays three-dimensional chess for an empire. It's the Russian Way.
Thursday, September 25, 2014
More catch up 092314
William Blum spoke on "American Exceptionalism and US Foreign Policy" at a teach-in on US foreign policy at the American University in Washington, DC, on September 6, 2014. His talk is worth a look up but to long for a restatement here. He points out the chasm between America's public perceptions of its foreign policies and world realities generating resistance to Americanization. He doesn't actually condemn American policies; it is more of an indictment of the hypocrisy of government disinformation aimed at the American people. Sampling his examples it is easier to understand why the United States has become a favored target of the international community, dissidents, radicals and disenfranchised terror. ###
Scholar and former Australian diplomat Kadira Pethiyagoda used WWI's anniversary to note some current parallels and present an argument for understanding cultural differences. His similarities note that States are again pushing the boundaries of international law, acting unilaterally to control territory, and that new international players are in the wings with wealth and capabilities, hungry for their share. He argues that today is a multipolarity society including Asia, South America and Africa. WWI was an explosion of a single Euro-centric culture; the 21st century is already one of cultures in conflict. Western foreign policy in the 20th century was based Game Theory's rational actors. Simply put policies are based on how the policy makers themselves would react. A multipolar world is one of multi-value choices that may appear irrational to western politicians but quite reasonable to regional policy makers. Failure to adjust polices to cultural understandings will exasperate relations and may eclipse current realities. Before America eclipsed England Winston Churchill noted that the Americans and British were a common people divided by a common language. ###
In Europe cultural xenophobia is apparently again becoming a tool of rightist politics. Immigrations into the once homogenous countries presents blame game opportunities for power grabs. It is interesting that the much-diminished European Jewish populations are again the focus of hate politics. Yascha Mounk argues that this is the result of resentment against Jews, as reminders of European Christian complicity in the Holocaust. Muslim immigrants to Europe with a long history of Jewish tolerance (not to be confused with Israelis) appear to be more acceptant than native Christians. Rightist are attempting to create conflict between Muslims and Jews to demonstrate the dangers posed by non-European values that are not compatible to European culture. Unlike western cultures with long histories immigration and assimilation Europe remained free of multiculturalism. With the post war colonial collapse many natives immigrated to the "home" countries and were followed by large masses seeking economic and political freedoms. Faced with a cultural flood of strange foods, practices and dress the newcomers are shuffled off to new ghettos that they find difficult to leave. In face of their strangeness and isolation most European do not accept that immigrants can ever integrate into their European culture. This xenophobia provides fertile ground for politicians on the right to leverage their way to power. In America the Irish, Italians and Poles initially faced similar experiences but their assimilation provided a much richer culture. Failure to accept assimilation is the doorway to victimization and terror. ###
Scholar and former Australian diplomat Kadira Pethiyagoda used WWI's anniversary to note some current parallels and present an argument for understanding cultural differences. His similarities note that States are again pushing the boundaries of international law, acting unilaterally to control territory, and that new international players are in the wings with wealth and capabilities, hungry for their share. He argues that today is a multipolarity society including Asia, South America and Africa. WWI was an explosion of a single Euro-centric culture; the 21st century is already one of cultures in conflict. Western foreign policy in the 20th century was based Game Theory's rational actors. Simply put policies are based on how the policy makers themselves would react. A multipolar world is one of multi-value choices that may appear irrational to western politicians but quite reasonable to regional policy makers. Failure to adjust polices to cultural understandings will exasperate relations and may eclipse current realities. Before America eclipsed England Winston Churchill noted that the Americans and British were a common people divided by a common language. ###
In Europe cultural xenophobia is apparently again becoming a tool of rightist politics. Immigrations into the once homogenous countries presents blame game opportunities for power grabs. It is interesting that the much-diminished European Jewish populations are again the focus of hate politics. Yascha Mounk argues that this is the result of resentment against Jews, as reminders of European Christian complicity in the Holocaust. Muslim immigrants to Europe with a long history of Jewish tolerance (not to be confused with Israelis) appear to be more acceptant than native Christians. Rightist are attempting to create conflict between Muslims and Jews to demonstrate the dangers posed by non-European values that are not compatible to European culture. Unlike western cultures with long histories immigration and assimilation Europe remained free of multiculturalism. With the post war colonial collapse many natives immigrated to the "home" countries and were followed by large masses seeking economic and political freedoms. Faced with a cultural flood of strange foods, practices and dress the newcomers are shuffled off to new ghettos that they find difficult to leave. In face of their strangeness and isolation most European do not accept that immigrants can ever integrate into their European culture. This xenophobia provides fertile ground for politicians on the right to leverage their way to power. In America the Irish, Italians and Poles initially faced similar experiences but their assimilation provided a much richer culture. Failure to accept assimilation is the doorway to victimization and terror. ###
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