Converging history 121409

The decision is made and the polmil got most of what it ask for in Afghanistan. Importantly the polmil got a guarantee of their next promotions for at least two more years.

The President’s speechwriters were a little in error when he stated Afghanistan is not another Vietnam. Actually Afghanistan is becoming the second longest American engagement, the Philippines being the longest, on and off since 1898.

America built its Kandahar airbase in the 50s for support of its cold war strategy against the Soviets. It abandoned the base due to harsh conditions and isolation in favor of cold war bases in Iran. When Iran overthrew the Shah and ejected American interest in the 70s, the Kandahar base resurfaced as an outpost against Iran but the Afghans were not as friendly as they once were to the idea. In the late 70s and 80s Afghanistan became the battleground for a proxy war against the Soviets. When the Soviets withdrew in the late 80s the Americans abandoned its Afghan allies again leaving them in a well-armed power vacuum leading to protracted civil war. When Afghanistan became a preferred route for an oil pipeline from the former Soviet republics American again attempted to get its foot in the door, but the new Taliban government wanted a fair share of the action.

After the terrorist attacks of 9/11 Kandahar became the American staging area for Afghan invasion and occupation. This was a fulfillment of 50s fears of Afghan isolationists’. Now after almost nine years of occupation America is ramping up its spear-carriers (soldier power), while attempting to drag in more international support. Afghans see a corrupt American puppet government in Kabul, bleeding the country of foreign aid. The new American administration sees the same picture despite the polmil’s promises of victory with more time, more troops, more medals and more promotions.

The Administration finds itself in the same position as the LBJ’s administration during the Vietnam War. They are both in a war they did not want, trying to solve domestic issues while not appearing to lose a war. Both administrations faced a strident polmil seeking more power and destruction. Obama seeks a strategy, while Johnson sought tactics for victory.

Johnson left a major lesson for Obama. Attempting two costly programs (war and domestic reform) at the same time dooms America to runaway inflation, record deficits and declining power. Obama took office with record deficits, and a collapsed economy with inflation just around the corner even without a war.

Today’s spear-carriers have fancier weapons, miracle medicine and are better equipped than their Vietnam era fathers. Like their fathers, however, they still must pay the price in blood for bad policy, leaving a legacy of debt to their children and grandchildren. Despite all the spear-carriers’ blood, Afghan’s know America will soon desert them again. The Afghan’s have long memories of the cost of war from cultural invasions.