Far East

Old player returns to the field

Twenty years ago western pundits and politicians were gleefully expounding on the imminent collapse of China (PRC). Today many of those same pundits and politicians are decrying that the Chinese are the ultimate threat to the western way of life out to conquer the world.

China was never at risk of collapse but was going through a period of liberalization. Not in the sense of becoming a so called liberal society but rather a society assessing its future and adapting to new dynamics, a transition of methodology not strategy. Many commentators have noted that China takes a long view of development. The west on the other hand takes an imperialist, conservative view of looking to its past and perceived greatness. In North America strategic planning extends only to the next poll.

Unlike the former Soviet Union, which was considered a great power, based only on a measure of its military power, China’s growing power is more balance with the potential of real great power status. China is not only rich in human capital but also natural resources. Chinese leadership is leveraging its riches through education and investment in industrial and economic growth. Historic Chinese innovation may well pale beside it innovative potential for the future.

The ultimate Chinese great power strategy from a western perspective is speculative but there are indicators of its direction. China is reaching outside its traditional region of influence. Both through diplomatic initiatives, direct investments and foreign aid China is expanding its influence through Asia, Africa and South America. There is no question that this is in the long-term interest of China, but also supports regional development in areas ignored by former great powers’ competition.

Some western leaders are in the process, reminiscent of the east-west cold war conflict, of demonizing China’s intentions. The world can not afford another period of great power conflict, which wasted great human and material wealth in nonproductive endeavors. The forgotten regions of the world stand to gain from China’s development initiatives. These long ignored areas are rich in resources and can with effort be transformed into contributing members of 21st century world order.

It is not in the interest of that world order to attempt to prevent China’s outreach. Scholars of international power have long hypothesized on world power shifts. The measures of power evolve with emerging technologies and power is finite. It is in the interest of all that power be shared, or else it may be lost to those looking forward rather than backward.

China at the moment is at a juncture. China has the resources to become a competitor for power in this century but it also can become an international partner for innovation, growth and solutions to the inherent stresses of the world.

frank