Fracturing 091914

The news of the day is that Scotland voted NO to independence, which in effect would be the end of the United Kingdom.  Pundits point to a ten-point spread on independence, however only a five- percent switch could have changed the outcome.  In its largest voter turnout almost half of the Scots want freedom from England.  The tipping point may have been last minute British promises to voters to do better.

Now that the vote is in it remains to be seen if England will honor its word.  With ample examples of British Parliamentary duplicity, that saw the sun set on a Great Empire, it's possible the dominoes will fall in future calls for independence in the UK. The result would be a series of city-states seeking alliances anywhere but with England.  Long past its world power greatness of the 19th century England would be forced to face reality surrendering its seat on the UN Security Council, which might lead to a UN Charter rewrite in favor of greater power and equity for small states.

The world order may become a world reorder as old nation states are faced with increasing internal demands for independence. With some adjustments the present order dates from the 17th century Treaties of Westphalia, which gave rise to nation states. In the wake of World Wars most colonial empires broke up as a series of mini-states when small groups declared independence.  When the last great Empire (The Soviet Union) began to splinter the west was euphoric and pushed eastward to humiliate and punishing the Russians. Much of Africa and Asia are now fragmenting in bloody Theo-political revolutionary battles.  At first the West saw energy source opportunities but quickly became embroiled in multiple insurgencies without gaining oil.  The West tended to ignore causations as long as the stresses were on the other side of the globe but with the Scottish vote analyst began to recognize systemic flaws.

In addition to UK; Canada, Spain, China and even the United States have independence movements. The nation state establishment has responded either by suppression or ignoring causations as anger mounts and governments appear incapable of governing.  Russia seized an opportunity to try for its former Ukrainian colony, chopping off pieces.   Under the cover of the War on Terror, Britain made another attempt to colonize Afghanistan by attempting installation of Colonial Political Officers in its Providences.  Afghans quickly saw through this subterfuge and distanced itself from the occupying Coalition.  China appears to be attempting the velvet fist in its northwest.  Playing partisan politics the clueless American Congress ignores the dynamic nature on independence movements at home and abroad.  Around the globe there is a distinct move to the right.

This swing to the right possibly heralds the coming of small totalitarian regimes.  Internal conflicts are spilling across borders.  Playing the social media like clarion horns ideologues recruit fighters from many countries that eventually will return home socialized as revolutionaries. Competing warring crowds may replace nation states as the new order following prolonged bloody conflicts.  Nation states must reform or die by violence of an interactive global war.