Decline 102012

From the late 18th century no classical education has been complete without consideration of Gibbon’s “Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.”  Published between 1776 and 1789 his works were probably read by America’s founding fathers.  They may also have been the last American classical scholars, for science and engineering became the country’s new wave.

According to Gibbon the Empire fell through the gradual decline of civic virtue (will or cultural values.)  Rome began to hire mercenaries, rather than sacrifice in their common defense.  Romans began to pursue an easier life, without challenges but with ample entertaining diversions.  He cites governing abuses of power and religious extremism as two other causations of the decline.  Gibbon only considered Rome’s fall but a similar case can be made for each of the ancient civilizations.

By the late 20th century a long cycle theory emerged that states in essence that great powers predictably rise and fall over time, not by defeat but rather by their unwillingness to pay the cost of maintaining greatness.  The measures of power are constantly evolving with military power only a passing measure.  Unwilling to maintain the preponderance of power (economic, philosophical, social as well as military) a great power forfeits its leadership.  The world order becomes unstable until new leaderships are established.

In the 22nd century foreign scholars may be writing about the eclipse of the American sun.  It is already apparent that the economic sun no longer rises in New York to light the world.  Market forces are now constantly circling the globe.  The sun rises in Tokyo, Beijing, Dubai, Frankfurt and London before waking New York to new dynamics.  Now a debtor nation, the United States can no longer project its power by loans to needy states.

Roman gladiatorial diversions have evolved into Saturday, Sunday and Monday night football, with replays for the rest of the week.  Political debates are upstaged by news of wardrobe malfunctions (they are at least more interesting and informative.)  The highest salaries go to entertainers. The traditional civilian army has become a Praetorian Guard exercising political power over civilian restraints.  National security programs grow, never shrink, despite increased reliance on proxy armies and paid mercenaries (contractors).   Battlefield success fails to deliver desired political outcomes, yet the military seeks to blunder on to another war.

In any given situation government’s first impulse is cover up, stamping classified in the national interest, on bungled excursions.  The military began training some of histories’ most formidable warriors over ten years ago.  These Afghan warriors defeated the Persians, Alexander, British (three times), Russians and are forcing Americans into retreat. Failure is covered up by Generals demanding another ten years to “train” the Afghan Army in the American way.  To lose?

Already on a downhill slide, how far to the precipice?