Ignoring the religious controversies over Darwin’s evolution theories, historical evolution exists. Historical evolution is alive in the minds of a few remaining centenarians who saw the birth of the 20th century but the full evolution of the 20th century has millions of living witnesses.
One major engine of 20th century evolution was war. The century suffered from three world wars (one, two and cold) and innumerable border conflicts, ethnic battles and very uncivil wars. World Wars One and Two unleashed technical innovations that changed how people interact. They also unleashed the aspirations of the world’s ignored and oppressed people. The peoples’ evolution was movements to nationalism and freedom from colonial masters. At the end of World War One all the great nationalist leaders of the century were alive and campaigning for justice.
There were liberal movements emerging around the world seeking a promised “Self Determination.” To win allies the great powers promised much liberalization but on victory their interests quickly embraced conservatism. The liberals wanted change; the conservative wanted the status quo. Each movement was ripped by internal struggles with their “Ultras.” Ultra liberals demanded ever more and more radical change, while the ultra conservatives sought a return to the glory of supposed idealize pasts that never really existed. Liberals and conservatives can negotiate, the ultra movements will never agree. The seeds were sown for the century’s conflicts as old ultra conservatives sought to return the world to 19th century colonial empires.
Afghanistan again ejected the British and Iraq rejected them in 27 gaining independence in 32. From the Pacific to the Atlantic the liberal have-nots struggled with the conservative haves. Into this mix World War Two was rocket science, linking the darkest reaches of the planet with a network of ideas, while leaving piles of technology and weapons. The conservatives were bankrupt both in money and ideas while the liberals marched to new drums. The 19th century was dead and the 20th had evolved. Long suppressed nationalist wars erupted, and the conservative Cold War antagonists chose up sides fighting very hot proxy campaigns. Evolution of ideas is not pretty nor do all accept change. Faith also evolved but is resented by the conservative faithful.
The ultra liberal ideas of the 20th century, which brought nationalism and freedom, have proven too much to fast for faithful ultra conservatives. They seek to reverse evolution returning to a simpler era where ideas can’t challenge their values. Religious fundamentalists romanticize a view of centuries’ pasts but the genie is out of the bottle. The past was not as idealized as imagined and a trip back is one of certain disappointment.
Rather than engage in ideological warfare, liberals and conservatives must engage in meaningful evolutionary dialogue of cooperation leading to peace. Failure to do so in today’s already integrated world will lead to brutal sectarian warfare spawning a global Dark Age.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Monday, January 11, 2010
New Year 010110
Another decade has passed into history with pundits promising a bright future for the New Year. The reality however is that the past’s unexploded time bombs are one year closer to detonation.
The polar caps are melting, the seas are rising and the earth is becoming hotter. Politicians called a conference, posed for pictures and declared “satisfactory” results. While the seas are deeper they are being fished to barren extinction, farmlands are becoming deserts and forests are turning into urban developments. Energy demands as well as costs are rising as fossil fuel reserves decline. Waste and pollution blankets the globe as people migrate from the land to urban mega centers that demand more resources and produce more pollution. Resources are being depleted at an alarming rate and clean water in those urban centers is in danger of rationing.
Politicians return home, reassuring their publics that a solution is in hand and action will be taken. They then turn problems over to technocrats and return to electioneering. The technocrats have heard it all before, so it is business as usual. They begin to update an action plan for the next administration. Some honestly don’t believe a crisis, any crisis, is a crisis. Others think the situation is unavoidable so why exhaust themselves pursuing placebo proclamations. They believe in their exceptionalism and any crisis will only impact those of lessor worth. The reality is they lack the capacity to adapt and are paralyzed by self-doubts, falling back on collective irresponsibility of anonymous no action.
Most of tomorrow’s explosions are the result of bombs planted by innovations and development of the 19th and 20th century. During that era developed states made many wasteful environmental missteps in their rush to greatness. People fueled the need to grow and grow quickly. Today the populations of great states are aging out of power competition as young populations begin to reach for their own golden power ring.
Conservative estimates are that by mid-century the world population will be over nine billion people. That number hides a growing imbalance of declining population in developed nations and explosive growth in developing states. Across Africa, Asia and Latin America the under 20 year olds form 25 to 45 percent of present populations. These young people are just entering their child bearing and creative years. The old decaying powers serve as a model for their needs and desires as they “want it now” not considering that this attitude planted the seeds of their own future destruction.
Developing states would do well to study the models of the past as a precaution against unplanned development. The great powers of the 21st century will be those that devise innovative ways to do more with less while satisfying the desires of accelerating demands. Innovation must not only solve development challenges but also defuse the environmental bombs left by the great powers of the past.
The polar caps are melting, the seas are rising and the earth is becoming hotter. Politicians called a conference, posed for pictures and declared “satisfactory” results. While the seas are deeper they are being fished to barren extinction, farmlands are becoming deserts and forests are turning into urban developments. Energy demands as well as costs are rising as fossil fuel reserves decline. Waste and pollution blankets the globe as people migrate from the land to urban mega centers that demand more resources and produce more pollution. Resources are being depleted at an alarming rate and clean water in those urban centers is in danger of rationing.
Politicians return home, reassuring their publics that a solution is in hand and action will be taken. They then turn problems over to technocrats and return to electioneering. The technocrats have heard it all before, so it is business as usual. They begin to update an action plan for the next administration. Some honestly don’t believe a crisis, any crisis, is a crisis. Others think the situation is unavoidable so why exhaust themselves pursuing placebo proclamations. They believe in their exceptionalism and any crisis will only impact those of lessor worth. The reality is they lack the capacity to adapt and are paralyzed by self-doubts, falling back on collective irresponsibility of anonymous no action.
Most of tomorrow’s explosions are the result of bombs planted by innovations and development of the 19th and 20th century. During that era developed states made many wasteful environmental missteps in their rush to greatness. People fueled the need to grow and grow quickly. Today the populations of great states are aging out of power competition as young populations begin to reach for their own golden power ring.
Conservative estimates are that by mid-century the world population will be over nine billion people. That number hides a growing imbalance of declining population in developed nations and explosive growth in developing states. Across Africa, Asia and Latin America the under 20 year olds form 25 to 45 percent of present populations. These young people are just entering their child bearing and creative years. The old decaying powers serve as a model for their needs and desires as they “want it now” not considering that this attitude planted the seeds of their own future destruction.
Developing states would do well to study the models of the past as a precaution against unplanned development. The great powers of the 21st century will be those that devise innovative ways to do more with less while satisfying the desires of accelerating demands. Innovation must not only solve development challenges but also defuse the environmental bombs left by the great powers of the past.
Monday, December 28, 2009
Time Flies 122709
The 19th century was the age of the train. Steel rails circled globe. Produce arrived in the cities farm fresh. Romance and adventure rode the rails.
The 20th century was the age of the plane. Adventure took to the air. Air travel was a class act of fine dinning and service. Passengers arrived groomed and rested at modern terminals around the globe. Flying west they could even arrive before they departed.
Technology and bad management doomed rail travel. Railroads went bankrupt and greed raised fares as rails and service deteriorated. The grand stations became dark, dirty places outside urban growth. Management milked every cent for owners while choking maintenance and employees. Ultimately steel rails were torn out and beaten into horse-less carriages.
Airlines followed the rail model. Art-deco air terminals rivaling the 19th century grand stations were built and air routes linked the world’s major cities. Grass runways of feeder lines fed the need for more air travelers. Competition and larger planes drove many small airlines into bankruptcy. Bottom line greed stripped the glamour from flying as more and more passengers are stuffed into sardine can accommodations. The quest for greater profit saw aging air fleets, pay reductions and reduced services. Once free baggage, food and drinks could bring in more revenue. Management innovators began adding fees: booking fees, fuel fees, holiday fees, ticket fees, airport fees, landing fees. What goes up must come down except for the fees steadily rising.
Then came hijackings and need for sky marshals who proved ineffectual to prevent the world trade disaster. Politicians seeking to appear concerned added placebo security of unreasonable searches and seizures along with security taxes and fees to air travel. Hungry, thirsty passengers are now forced to remain in their seats with their hands folded. Air travel built on speed and glamour has come to a sudden halt. Passengers may now have to travel two or more hours to reach a terminal three hours before a scheduled departure that may be hours late in taking off on its 30-minute flight. At the destination delays in landing, deplaning, retrieving costly checked bags and another long trip away from the terminal. A 30-minute trip has become a degrading all day affair. The forecast is for even more closely packed passengers in even larger planes that fly faster but take longer to board, service and secure. These passengers will be dressed in surgical gowns, open in back, locked to their rough seats and allowed nothing to bring nothing on board. “Come fly with me,” has become distinctly unattractive. Fear and bad management is condemning air travel to a faith lower than rail travel, airplanes will be recycled into soda cans.
The 21st century may save future travelers in a virtual world that can tele-port people and cargoes even to distance planets. Bad management however is sure to disrupt the process, while searching for greater profits making, ‘Lost in space a real probability.” At least you may find your bag.
The 20th century was the age of the plane. Adventure took to the air. Air travel was a class act of fine dinning and service. Passengers arrived groomed and rested at modern terminals around the globe. Flying west they could even arrive before they departed.
Technology and bad management doomed rail travel. Railroads went bankrupt and greed raised fares as rails and service deteriorated. The grand stations became dark, dirty places outside urban growth. Management milked every cent for owners while choking maintenance and employees. Ultimately steel rails were torn out and beaten into horse-less carriages.
Airlines followed the rail model. Art-deco air terminals rivaling the 19th century grand stations were built and air routes linked the world’s major cities. Grass runways of feeder lines fed the need for more air travelers. Competition and larger planes drove many small airlines into bankruptcy. Bottom line greed stripped the glamour from flying as more and more passengers are stuffed into sardine can accommodations. The quest for greater profit saw aging air fleets, pay reductions and reduced services. Once free baggage, food and drinks could bring in more revenue. Management innovators began adding fees: booking fees, fuel fees, holiday fees, ticket fees, airport fees, landing fees. What goes up must come down except for the fees steadily rising.
Then came hijackings and need for sky marshals who proved ineffectual to prevent the world trade disaster. Politicians seeking to appear concerned added placebo security of unreasonable searches and seizures along with security taxes and fees to air travel. Hungry, thirsty passengers are now forced to remain in their seats with their hands folded. Air travel built on speed and glamour has come to a sudden halt. Passengers may now have to travel two or more hours to reach a terminal three hours before a scheduled departure that may be hours late in taking off on its 30-minute flight. At the destination delays in landing, deplaning, retrieving costly checked bags and another long trip away from the terminal. A 30-minute trip has become a degrading all day affair. The forecast is for even more closely packed passengers in even larger planes that fly faster but take longer to board, service and secure. These passengers will be dressed in surgical gowns, open in back, locked to their rough seats and allowed nothing to bring nothing on board. “Come fly with me,” has become distinctly unattractive. Fear and bad management is condemning air travel to a faith lower than rail travel, airplanes will be recycled into soda cans.
The 21st century may save future travelers in a virtual world that can tele-port people and cargoes even to distance planets. Bad management however is sure to disrupt the process, while searching for greater profits making, ‘Lost in space a real probability.” At least you may find your bag.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Slippery Slope 122009
Spin-doctors are on a oil slick slope as they attempt to distance politicians from the Iraqi invasion, occupation and impending disaster. According to after the fact sugar coating spin, there is now proof that the Iraq invasion was not about oil.
The Texas oilmen running the Bush administration may well be trying to placate American Oil INC. The Cheney/Rumsfeld cabal was quite vocal in assuring Congress and Big Oil that the Iraq occupation would be paid for with Iraqi oil and secure American energy for the future. There was even a plan to “secure” other foreign oil fields for America’s future requirements. This was an open admission that there was no intention to leave Iraqi oil fields once secured.
The difficulty emerged when nothing in Iraq worked as Rumsfeld envisioned. The invasion fractured the infrastructure of the country so the oil ceased to flow. Years after America was supposed to recoup the cost of war from Iraqi oil the flow remains a trickle that barely supports the broken nation.
Spin now cites as proof that oil was never an objective in the Iraq decision point to the fact that Americans companies were locked out of a new oil boom. It’s true, not because it wasn’t the objective but rather because a sovereign Iraq refused to award a single oil contract to an American company. Countries that opposed the invasion of Iraq will now shape the Iraqi oil industry for the next couple of decades. Rather than giving foreign oil companies control over Iraqi reserves, as the U.S. attempted to do with its Oil Law which it failed to push through Iraq’s parliament, foreign oil companies were awarded service contracts lasting 20 years. The oil will remain the property of the Iraqi State, and the foreign companies will pump it for a fixed price per barrel. Exxon Mobil did achieve an 80 percent share in one field prior to the public auction process, but Iraq plans to exploit its technology to expand output for the country.
While it appears that the victor exercised no special claim on the spoils of war there is a more probable explanation. Iraqi officials say they are not awarding contracts based on political considerations, but it is sending a message, there is no reward for destroying a nation and killing its citizens.
Rumsfeld promised rich rewards following a short mission. He later admitted, “It is easier to get into something than to get out of it.” He also said, “There are a lot of people who lie and get away with it, and that's just a fact.” Sorry Don, you didn’t get away with it!
The Texas oilmen running the Bush administration may well be trying to placate American Oil INC. The Cheney/Rumsfeld cabal was quite vocal in assuring Congress and Big Oil that the Iraq occupation would be paid for with Iraqi oil and secure American energy for the future. There was even a plan to “secure” other foreign oil fields for America’s future requirements. This was an open admission that there was no intention to leave Iraqi oil fields once secured.
The difficulty emerged when nothing in Iraq worked as Rumsfeld envisioned. The invasion fractured the infrastructure of the country so the oil ceased to flow. Years after America was supposed to recoup the cost of war from Iraqi oil the flow remains a trickle that barely supports the broken nation.
Spin now cites as proof that oil was never an objective in the Iraq decision point to the fact that Americans companies were locked out of a new oil boom. It’s true, not because it wasn’t the objective but rather because a sovereign Iraq refused to award a single oil contract to an American company. Countries that opposed the invasion of Iraq will now shape the Iraqi oil industry for the next couple of decades. Rather than giving foreign oil companies control over Iraqi reserves, as the U.S. attempted to do with its Oil Law which it failed to push through Iraq’s parliament, foreign oil companies were awarded service contracts lasting 20 years. The oil will remain the property of the Iraqi State, and the foreign companies will pump it for a fixed price per barrel. Exxon Mobil did achieve an 80 percent share in one field prior to the public auction process, but Iraq plans to exploit its technology to expand output for the country.
While it appears that the victor exercised no special claim on the spoils of war there is a more probable explanation. Iraqi officials say they are not awarding contracts based on political considerations, but it is sending a message, there is no reward for destroying a nation and killing its citizens.
Rumsfeld promised rich rewards following a short mission. He later admitted, “It is easier to get into something than to get out of it.” He also said, “There are a lot of people who lie and get away with it, and that's just a fact.” Sorry Don, you didn’t get away with it!
Sword for rent 121809
Long before there were swords there were warriors for hire. Highly skilled warriors were courted with promises of the best cuts of mastodon and most attractive ladies. The warriors’ job was to defend a group from man and beast. If it failed to deliver on its promises, or was outbid by a rival group, the warrior walked.
When groups became tribes and tribes, empires free warriors’ pay improved and they were called mercenaries, soldier for hire. Skilled mercenary armies were hired by rulers for defense, but more often offence. Professional mercenaries were so effective that opposing rulers often resorted to a strategy that if you can’t beat them, hire them away. Sometimes mercenaries never fought they just kept switching sides for higher and higher pay. During the feudal era epics were penned on the heroic exploits of wandering free warriors. England built an empire with colonial mercenary armies and lost it to the same soldiers.
Americans have also sold their swords. Following the revolution John Paul Jones marketed his battle skills to the highest bidder (Russia). After the civil war many veterans served various nations. During the Spanish civil war Americans were prohibited from serving on the politically incorrect side. During the nationalist era of the 1950-70s a number did support politically correct causes. There are common threads in these examples: mercenaries do change sides; mercenary armies often become stronger than national armies and overthrow their masters. When nations become dependent on mercenaries to fight their battles it is the beginning of the end for their culture.
Recently the Congressional Research Service (CRS) estimated that slightly over half of DOD’s war effort in Iraq and Afghanistan is being preformed by modern mercenaries, contractors. Contractors perform such mundane task as washing dishes to combat operations. The national Army can no longer function without contract support. In the past soldier drivers, cooks and bakers mobilized to hold the line in times of emergency. Civilian contractors can’t perform this task because they lack the skills or it is not in their contracts. Expanding the contract requires prolonged negotiations and compensation.
There is a problem with the CRS report, it measures DOD’s reliance on contractors but other government agencies in the combat zone also rely on contractors for services once preformed by the national army. The report may also underestimate contractor numbers, prime contractors often subcontract tasks to cheaper labor from many nations. The use of contract soldiers provides political cover for administrations since contractor strength and casualties are not imprinted in public view.
The human cost of this war is hidden but the danger is that the real capacity of the nation to defend and protect itself is now dependent on its ability to pay mercenary armies. In the world of cash and carry warfare, economic downturns can lead to defeat. The bottom line is profit not ethics. There is a point where mercenaries begin to fight for their own interest rather than those of the state.
When groups became tribes and tribes, empires free warriors’ pay improved and they were called mercenaries, soldier for hire. Skilled mercenary armies were hired by rulers for defense, but more often offence. Professional mercenaries were so effective that opposing rulers often resorted to a strategy that if you can’t beat them, hire them away. Sometimes mercenaries never fought they just kept switching sides for higher and higher pay. During the feudal era epics were penned on the heroic exploits of wandering free warriors. England built an empire with colonial mercenary armies and lost it to the same soldiers.
Americans have also sold their swords. Following the revolution John Paul Jones marketed his battle skills to the highest bidder (Russia). After the civil war many veterans served various nations. During the Spanish civil war Americans were prohibited from serving on the politically incorrect side. During the nationalist era of the 1950-70s a number did support politically correct causes. There are common threads in these examples: mercenaries do change sides; mercenary armies often become stronger than national armies and overthrow their masters. When nations become dependent on mercenaries to fight their battles it is the beginning of the end for their culture.
Recently the Congressional Research Service (CRS) estimated that slightly over half of DOD’s war effort in Iraq and Afghanistan is being preformed by modern mercenaries, contractors. Contractors perform such mundane task as washing dishes to combat operations. The national Army can no longer function without contract support. In the past soldier drivers, cooks and bakers mobilized to hold the line in times of emergency. Civilian contractors can’t perform this task because they lack the skills or it is not in their contracts. Expanding the contract requires prolonged negotiations and compensation.
There is a problem with the CRS report, it measures DOD’s reliance on contractors but other government agencies in the combat zone also rely on contractors for services once preformed by the national army. The report may also underestimate contractor numbers, prime contractors often subcontract tasks to cheaper labor from many nations. The use of contract soldiers provides political cover for administrations since contractor strength and casualties are not imprinted in public view.
The human cost of this war is hidden but the danger is that the real capacity of the nation to defend and protect itself is now dependent on its ability to pay mercenary armies. In the world of cash and carry warfare, economic downturns can lead to defeat. The bottom line is profit not ethics. There is a point where mercenaries begin to fight for their own interest rather than those of the state.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Terror rides 121509
History remembers the German GESTAPO and Soviet KGB as terrorist organizations. They were in fact police organization that evolved into political police, which freely used terror against their respective populations. Both services resorted to torture, domestic spying and citizen networks of informants to for some perceived greater good to the State. Just who defined the greater good became obscured by organizational self-interest. Ultimately the objective became protection of governing by total subjugation of the governed.
Today both organizations are condemned for their activities. Their methods however continue to be widely studied and adapted by other governments intent on retaining power. In the post war years many countries attempted to gain independence and freedom from the past. A democratic government in Iran exiled the autocratic Shah and attempted to gain a fair share of Iran’s oil wealth for social reforms. At the urging of the British, America staged a coup and returned the Shah to power. To retain the Shah as an anti-Soviet ally the Americans established and trained an Iranian secret police, SAVAK. The brutality of SAVAK contributed to his second overthrow and the establishment of a theocratic order. The new rulers discovered value in SAVAK and retained its agents under the names of SAVAMA>MOIS>VEVAK. Even religion needs to keep its flock in line.
America did not see that far down the line however, and established the School of the Americas (SOA) out of view in Panama. The SOA trained Latin American dictatorships in the methodologies of population control in the name a greater good of anti-communism. Latin secret police “disappeared” people and death squads freely roamed the streets. There were no trials and few official records of secret police activities. Ultimately the countries revolted over the oppression and today are still trying to determine the full scope of the abuse of powers.
The lessons of establishing secret police societies are that eventually they will resort to terrorism to support private agendas. The purpose of terror is not acquisition of information, but rather to terrorize, create fear and suppress popular dissent. The greater good becomes sustaining the powerful rather than protection of the peoples. Lessons ignored or embraced by the polmil?
The polmil is sending an intelligence battalion to train Iraqi security forces in the black arts of spying on Iraqi people. The polmil has also announced that it intends to take over internal investigations in Afghanistan while establishing and training another police force that will track domestic activities. Both of these efforts are not only violations of respective sovereignty of independent states, but also are aimed at suppression of democratic political dissent.
The final lesson is that secret police tactics inevitably leads to resistance movements, revolts and lingering animosity toward the foreign sponsors of corrupted regimes.
Today both organizations are condemned for their activities. Their methods however continue to be widely studied and adapted by other governments intent on retaining power. In the post war years many countries attempted to gain independence and freedom from the past. A democratic government in Iran exiled the autocratic Shah and attempted to gain a fair share of Iran’s oil wealth for social reforms. At the urging of the British, America staged a coup and returned the Shah to power. To retain the Shah as an anti-Soviet ally the Americans established and trained an Iranian secret police, SAVAK. The brutality of SAVAK contributed to his second overthrow and the establishment of a theocratic order. The new rulers discovered value in SAVAK and retained its agents under the names of SAVAMA>MOIS>VEVAK. Even religion needs to keep its flock in line.
America did not see that far down the line however, and established the School of the Americas (SOA) out of view in Panama. The SOA trained Latin American dictatorships in the methodologies of population control in the name a greater good of anti-communism. Latin secret police “disappeared” people and death squads freely roamed the streets. There were no trials and few official records of secret police activities. Ultimately the countries revolted over the oppression and today are still trying to determine the full scope of the abuse of powers.
The lessons of establishing secret police societies are that eventually they will resort to terrorism to support private agendas. The purpose of terror is not acquisition of information, but rather to terrorize, create fear and suppress popular dissent. The greater good becomes sustaining the powerful rather than protection of the peoples. Lessons ignored or embraced by the polmil?
The polmil is sending an intelligence battalion to train Iraqi security forces in the black arts of spying on Iraqi people. The polmil has also announced that it intends to take over internal investigations in Afghanistan while establishing and training another police force that will track domestic activities. Both of these efforts are not only violations of respective sovereignty of independent states, but also are aimed at suppression of democratic political dissent.
The final lesson is that secret police tactics inevitably leads to resistance movements, revolts and lingering animosity toward the foreign sponsors of corrupted regimes.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Converging history 121409
The decision is made and the polmil got most of what it ask for in Afghanistan. Importantly the polmil got a guarantee of their next promotions for at least two more years.
The President’s speechwriters were a little in error when he stated Afghanistan is not another Vietnam. Actually Afghanistan is becoming the second longest American engagement, the Philippines being the longest, on and off since 1898.
America built its Kandahar airbase in the 50s for support of its cold war strategy against the Soviets. It abandoned the base due to harsh conditions and isolation in favor of cold war bases in Iran. When Iran overthrew the Shah and ejected American interest in the 70s, the Kandahar base resurfaced as an outpost against Iran but the Afghans were not as friendly as they once were to the idea. In the late 70s and 80s Afghanistan became the battleground for a proxy war against the Soviets. When the Soviets withdrew in the late 80s the Americans abandoned its Afghan allies again leaving them in a well-armed power vacuum leading to protracted civil war. When Afghanistan became a preferred route for an oil pipeline from the former Soviet republics American again attempted to get its foot in the door, but the new Taliban government wanted a fair share of the action.
After the terrorist attacks of 9/11 Kandahar became the American staging area for Afghan invasion and occupation. This was a fulfillment of 50s fears of Afghan isolationists’. Now after almost nine years of occupation America is ramping up its spear-carriers (soldier power), while attempting to drag in more international support. Afghans see a corrupt American puppet government in Kabul, bleeding the country of foreign aid. The new American administration sees the same picture despite the polmil’s promises of victory with more time, more troops, more medals and more promotions.
The Administration finds itself in the same position as the LBJ’s administration during the Vietnam War. They are both in a war they did not want, trying to solve domestic issues while not appearing to lose a war. Both administrations faced a strident polmil seeking more power and destruction. Obama seeks a strategy, while Johnson sought tactics for victory.
Johnson left a major lesson for Obama. Attempting two costly programs (war and domestic reform) at the same time dooms America to runaway inflation, record deficits and declining power. Obama took office with record deficits, and a collapsed economy with inflation just around the corner even without a war.
Today’s spear-carriers have fancier weapons, miracle medicine and are better equipped than their Vietnam era fathers. Like their fathers, however, they still must pay the price in blood for bad policy, leaving a legacy of debt to their children and grandchildren. Despite all the spear-carriers’ blood, Afghan’s know America will soon desert them again. The Afghan’s have long memories of the cost of war from cultural invasions.
The President’s speechwriters were a little in error when he stated Afghanistan is not another Vietnam. Actually Afghanistan is becoming the second longest American engagement, the Philippines being the longest, on and off since 1898.
America built its Kandahar airbase in the 50s for support of its cold war strategy against the Soviets. It abandoned the base due to harsh conditions and isolation in favor of cold war bases in Iran. When Iran overthrew the Shah and ejected American interest in the 70s, the Kandahar base resurfaced as an outpost against Iran but the Afghans were not as friendly as they once were to the idea. In the late 70s and 80s Afghanistan became the battleground for a proxy war against the Soviets. When the Soviets withdrew in the late 80s the Americans abandoned its Afghan allies again leaving them in a well-armed power vacuum leading to protracted civil war. When Afghanistan became a preferred route for an oil pipeline from the former Soviet republics American again attempted to get its foot in the door, but the new Taliban government wanted a fair share of the action.
After the terrorist attacks of 9/11 Kandahar became the American staging area for Afghan invasion and occupation. This was a fulfillment of 50s fears of Afghan isolationists’. Now after almost nine years of occupation America is ramping up its spear-carriers (soldier power), while attempting to drag in more international support. Afghans see a corrupt American puppet government in Kabul, bleeding the country of foreign aid. The new American administration sees the same picture despite the polmil’s promises of victory with more time, more troops, more medals and more promotions.
The Administration finds itself in the same position as the LBJ’s administration during the Vietnam War. They are both in a war they did not want, trying to solve domestic issues while not appearing to lose a war. Both administrations faced a strident polmil seeking more power and destruction. Obama seeks a strategy, while Johnson sought tactics for victory.
Johnson left a major lesson for Obama. Attempting two costly programs (war and domestic reform) at the same time dooms America to runaway inflation, record deficits and declining power. Obama took office with record deficits, and a collapsed economy with inflation just around the corner even without a war.
Today’s spear-carriers have fancier weapons, miracle medicine and are better equipped than their Vietnam era fathers. Like their fathers, however, they still must pay the price in blood for bad policy, leaving a legacy of debt to their children and grandchildren. Despite all the spear-carriers’ blood, Afghan’s know America will soon desert them again. The Afghan’s have long memories of the cost of war from cultural invasions.
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