The Fall 081521

 It was probably inevitable that the United States would be run out of Afghanistan.  Its incursion began with a series of flawed assumptions. The first based on a failure to understand Afghanistan and the second being no need to learn.

The Afghans are history's greatest resistance fighters.  They drove out the Persians, Alexander the Great, the great Khan, the British three times, the Soviets and now the Americans and their allies.  In the 19th and 20th century it was the center of the Great Game between great powers. The American failure is not from lack of knowledge.  There were many, in and out of government who knew the Afghan mujahidin that drove out the Soviets.  Some of the present Taliban leadership fought with the mujahidin and used U.S. instruction to train its new generation of Taliban fighters.

The Taliban grew from a small group of fundamentalist students who overthrew a local corrupt and brutal administration.  Other oppressed communities requested their assistance and by 1996 the movement governed over three-quarters of the country by conquest or negotiations.  America de-facto recognized the Taliban government and was in negotiations with it on two main points: eject UBL from Afghanistan and allow an oil pipeline across the country from the Central Asian States to American tankers in the Persian Gulf.  The sticking points were: asking a guest, particularly one that had fought with the mujahidin, to leave went against Muslim honor.  The pipeline floundered because the Taliban wanted a larger piece of the action. The American 2000 election ushered in a petroleum triumvirate of Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld focused on pipelines and controlling oil fields. (Strategic Energy Initiative)

Following the 9-11 attacks the triumvirate declared all political opposition as terrorist activity and began a series of political wars.  One thing the military does well is move fast, shoot faster and ask no questions.  When the military is sent in expect military solutions. Its invasion of Afghanistan was no exception.  Everyone with a beard was either shot or captured.  It was some time before the military noticed that most of the men had beards but by that time the concentration camps were overflowing with poor dirt farmers.  Almost every family knew someone that had been imprisoned or brutalized by the invaders.  The Taliban gained a giant pool of potential recruits.  The invaders' quick victories were the result of local political leaders switching sides for profit. Where the Taliban originated in opposition to corruption, Americans fed corruption.  The powerful profited, villagers were targeted and the invaders developed a bunker mentality.

The military remained in charge of the conflict but its rotating leadership never had a clue.  It attempted to establish an old style British colonial government that the Afghans recognized, rejected, but paid lip service so the money would keep flowing.  Out to pick up a combat medal, colonels on 30-day visits attempted to establish a little America and kept the money flowing.  A high tech Army was established for a low-tech environment.  History's great warriors were trained for 20 years to be a western style army that ultimately fell apart.  The training wasn't wasted however, possibly half of the trainees deserted, with their weapons, and fought with the Taliban.  The Afghan Army along with the American Army was completely penetrated by Taliban agents, so much for any secret planning or operations.

I spent a number of years observing central and south Asia, discovering that Americans are easily hoodwinked.  When I finally left Afghanistan at the end of 2007 the one question I was unable to answer was, "Why is our military so dead set that Afghanistan should become a failed state?"

It took another 14 years of high cost blundering before the fall with a cost of over two trillion dollars and untold casualties. Military bodies are easy to count but the civilian and Taliban casualties may never be accurately known.  The effects of the war will continue as the wounded suffer and buried munitions explode.  

Eventually America seized on the British and Soviet solutions to their Afghan incursions, "Declare victory and leave."  Western politicians are scrambling to deny or defend their part in the disaster but there is enough blame to go around.  The GOP started the war, the Democrats gave it another go and finally the GOP sold out the Afghan government it created.  The Democrats are now left with a no win situation to clean up.  Biden was faced by Congressional Trumpers threatening impeachment when he extended the pull out by four months. Political deniability must point a finger somewhere so it is probable that much of the blame will fall on individual soldiers who fought, suffered and died rather than leadership that sent them to war without a strategy.  Once the allies allowed the Afghan Army to engage the enemy it suffered a loss of over 50,000 troops (US 2,500). Betrayed by its own corrupt political leadership the Afghan Army finally melted away.  Armies must be paid but more importantly given a rational reason to fight.

What happens now?  America never got its pipeline, but the Chinese are pushing one across northern Afghanistan and accessing its rich mineral deposits.  A viable Afghan resistance to the Taliban is unlikely with out massive, if improbable, foreign support.  Taliban leadership is more worldly and astute than in the nineties but it is still not a disciplined and organized movement.  Leaders may promise reforms and safety but the reality is a loose theocratic force roaming the country, seeking vengeance or their own piece of the pie.  The Taliban is now a well-equipped, well-armed force augmented by remnants of the well-trained Afghan Army.  Any future Afghan adventure will be met with a formidable foe, possibly supported by China, even Russia.

Former government supporters fled the country early in their pie wagons and will lobby American politicians for support of their fanciful vision of returning to power, keep the money flowing.   Despite the massive evacuation effort many of those who actually served allied interest will never escape to safety.  Some of those that do grab a seat on a "freedom bird" did nothing to support the government or allies, they may even be Taliban hoping to escape the coming years of turmoil and derivation.  Once the evacuation smoke dies down its probable that many will spend their days in foreign refugee camps, unable to ever go home or move forward.  Those that do make it to their promised lands will find the promise was more dream than reality.  They won't be able to integrate into society or earn a living wage. Previously Afghan immigrants who earned foreign pensions have discovered it is not enough to live on in a foreign land and may end up on the streets or in crime.  The influx of refugees on western societies will find little sympathy, support or hope.

Like Afghans of the past the Taliban will continue to resist foreign occupiers so the "Great Game" will continue with China as a new player.  It appears that China may have learned from history where America did not.  If America walks away from Central Asia again, it forfeits the game.  Rather than slinking away to lick its wounded ego the United States must remain engaged in Afghanistan for moderation of extremist influences.  The small, land locked country remains the crossroad of Asia, rich in resources and maybe ready for modernization.  The Democrats and GOP must band together striving for a foreign policy to make friends rather than resistance.  The "Win-win" scenario doesn't mean, "can't lose" in Asia, it means both sides win.