Future 010218

Another tip: RAND Corporation just published an assessment of U.S. military, stating that in a conflict with either the Russian or Chinese military that the U.S. would probably lose.  For once Trump didn't create the problem he is just accelerating its probability.  I have not read the report but from bits and pieces, the problem has its roots with Rumsfeld when he restructured the army to run roads and fight insurgents in a Sci-fi environment.  He is also responsible for the path to general being political rather than as a war fighter.  Senior officers now seek plums assignments with deniability rather than combat commands with responsibilities.  War fighters at company level have learned all the wrong lessons from over 20 years in limited but constant battle. Added to this is that the U.S. has scattered its combat strength in penny packets around the globe.  This was a Soviet strategy during the cold war, get the U.S. involved, spreading it so thin that it couldn't respond to a major threat.

When the Soviet Union collapsed American planners scrambled to find new foes, expand missions and plant the flag everywhere. Then came the "war on terror" spreading even reserve troops even further.  The 21st century has seen the U.S. military infrastructure ground down and the combat troops worn out by repeated deployments to far flung theaters. 

Dreamy planners are expecting high tech robotics to replace "boots on the ground."  They are making an assumption that potential opponents have no smart people.  They have forgotten the creed of old operations officers that "assumptions will kill you."  Even the most primitive insurgent now operates drones and remote controlled weapons, which  they can pick up at almost any toy store in the world.  Those weapons aren't fancy but they work and most are made in Asia.  High tech components, even whole American weapon systems, are manufactured in foreign countries, a supply line easily disrupted. Many very small nations now have multiple satellites in space along side American, Chinese and Russian birds.  Space is already a battlefield poised to explode at the first beep.  Great powers' nuclear monopoly ended decades ago as  technological diffusion allows any group willing to commit its resources, can now build a bomb.  Insurgents and terrorist with a little money can buy a primitive MWD capability.

One of the points of the RAND study is that even before the 2018 budget increase the U.S. military was spending many times more than either China or Russia on defense.  However both the Russians and Chinese military modernization programs are leaping forward while America's clanks along without focus. It is the politicals that deify waving flags, bluster and crow of the glories of war they've never experienced. It is the voiceless cannon fodder that know the realities of battle. In over half a century since the end of World War Two America has almost won only one war, the first Gulf War, with the last commander in chief who knew first hand the realities of war. During the period America beat up a number small countries through a series battles, but without a  clear victory. Despite Bush, the 1st, experience and Gulf win, that war continues to drag on after almost 30 years of fighting, destabilizing world order. Six century BC sage, Sun Tzu said, “Great nations can not win a long war,” but he would be astounded at a great nation engaging in a battle of this length.

Sun Tzu also said, “ The greatest victory is not to fight at all,” but America has been fighting without a strategy or even a concept of what would constitute its victory. The country is perilously close to expanding its conflict into yet another theater. From a cannon fodder perspective the solution to the present crisis is simple, get a muzzle.

In the 1930s a few wizards ignored politicians and went against conventional wisdom to leapfrog military knowledge, achieving game changing victories. RAND may be correct but I know a few modern wizards who could create a 21st century game changer. That is if they look beyond current political rhetoric and militaries' myopia. Our goal should be a Sun Tzu's victory.