The rise and fall of just about everything continues to fascinate both the public and scholars. The ancients probably took as much joy out of the decline and fall of the Roman Empire as the modern western states did from the decline and fall of the Soviet Union.
The rise and fall of great powers are not the only decline of interest. The public seems to have an insatiable appetite for stories of the rise and fall of athletes and movie stars. Corporate giants and financial institutions report great products and earnings only to suddenly crash to the horror of trusting investors.
Public officials hold hasty hearings, which ignore underlying causes but quickly assign blame to pacify a now poorer public. The media seeks out obscure “experts” who pontificate that either it is the end of an era or that it is a situation that can never happen again. Academics conduct exhaustive research on the causes for declines and publish great tomes of their conclusions that are seldom read and often in error.
Public officials, the media and even academics seek to explain declines as simple single theoretical causations on which to build their reputations while fatten their own pocketbooks. The truth is of course much more complex as the various theories are often in conflict with each other. Just about every factor has been used to explain the declines of the star power of states, businesses, athletes and actors.
One area of research has escaped diligent study, that of the roll of corruption in an ultimate decline. In part this omission is the result of corruption itself. “We are not corrupt it is those other people that are taking bribes.” “We have a sterling society, it is those foreign societies that are corrupt.” “It is those politicians who are corrupting our system.” Reality is that corruption is as universal as are honorable people in every society. Corrupt CEOs and politicians are also universal and the honorable people keep them in power as long as their corruption doesn’t cost “me” too much. Isn’t that also a form of corruption?
Spin doctors, marketers, advertising agencies and self-deception are practitioners of corruption. Corruption however is much broader than taking a bribe or telling a lie, it is also failure of society to insure the integrity of their social order. Once the combined weight of corruption exceeds the honest strength of a social system then the decayed social structure collapses. The ultimate corruption is looking the other way and pretending that it does not exist.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Pundits
After two agonizing years and a billion dollars the American election campaigns are finally over. The Blue team won, while the Red team crashed and burned.
The smoke is still rising from the Red team’s disastrous defeat and the pundits are dissecting every move and counter move of the campaign. In the joyous Blue Camp they are trying to figure out how to best capitalize on the “big MO” (momentum). The dejected Red camp is busy point fingers, calling names and denying responsibility for any part in the disaster.
From the back woods the view is that the Blues ran an incredibly good campaign that focused on the peoples’ interest and needs. The Blue campaign reached out to where the votes are the center. They looked past their loquacious leftist base to moderate conservatives, reassured moderate leftist while courting the independent centrist.
A good deal of credit for the Blue victory must go to the Red’s incredibly bad campaigning. If a campaign mistake could be made, they made it. Their first mistake was to embrace its rabid right instead of creating a coalition of policies. If any other running mate had been chosen the results could have been different. Instead of a campaign of voter reassurance it was a campaign of hate and fear. Most of all it was a campaign that sacrificed its presidential candidate’s greatest asset, his integrity. Red campaigners looked at the 2004 electoral map and decided it just had to hold on to the past.
Times had changed and conservatives have difficulty with change. The Reds failed to understand the dissatisfaction with the current administration policies and how deep are the economic fears of the country. There was an absence of hope from the Reds while the Blues bubbled over with hope.
It is now up to the Blue team to roll hope into policies that will united a divided nation into one that the world will again respect. Not an easy task, but one that is possible by reaching out to all the people.
The good news is that campaign 2008 is over, the bad news is that campaign 2012 has already begun. Is there no hope of peace for the voters?
.
The smoke is still rising from the Red team’s disastrous defeat and the pundits are dissecting every move and counter move of the campaign. In the joyous Blue Camp they are trying to figure out how to best capitalize on the “big MO” (momentum). The dejected Red camp is busy point fingers, calling names and denying responsibility for any part in the disaster.
From the back woods the view is that the Blues ran an incredibly good campaign that focused on the peoples’ interest and needs. The Blue campaign reached out to where the votes are the center. They looked past their loquacious leftist base to moderate conservatives, reassured moderate leftist while courting the independent centrist.
A good deal of credit for the Blue victory must go to the Red’s incredibly bad campaigning. If a campaign mistake could be made, they made it. Their first mistake was to embrace its rabid right instead of creating a coalition of policies. If any other running mate had been chosen the results could have been different. Instead of a campaign of voter reassurance it was a campaign of hate and fear. Most of all it was a campaign that sacrificed its presidential candidate’s greatest asset, his integrity. Red campaigners looked at the 2004 electoral map and decided it just had to hold on to the past.
Times had changed and conservatives have difficulty with change. The Reds failed to understand the dissatisfaction with the current administration policies and how deep are the economic fears of the country. There was an absence of hope from the Reds while the Blues bubbled over with hope.
It is now up to the Blue team to roll hope into policies that will united a divided nation into one that the world will again respect. Not an easy task, but one that is possible by reaching out to all the people.
The good news is that campaign 2008 is over, the bad news is that campaign 2012 has already begun. Is there no hope of peace for the voters?
.
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Strategy
America is mired in it quadrennial pagan ritual claimed to be the shining example of the democratic process, a presidential election campaign.
The red team seems to be on a search and destroy mission of attacking everyone and everything including itself, a strategy of alienation and division. It seems to be an attempt at divide and conquer through a smokescreen, which hides real issues. The blue team quickly capitalizes of Red’s alienation an draws in the disenchanted with platitudes of inclusion and change, another smokescreen hiding challenges that will play out long after the election.
The country is in an expanding two front shooting war along with its economic melt down. Both the Red and Blue teams blame the current administration for the problems. It can be argued that the present administration contributed to the current tales of woe. The truth is, however, that the administration inherited years of bad Purple (Red plus Blue) policies and did little address the root causes. In the race for free lodging at the White House, neither team is adequately dealing with the real need of this campaign.
The country is ten trillion dollars in debt and expects to spend a trillion dollars above its income next year. While decrying Wall Street’s embrace of debt as the cause of the current economic crisis the government is in the same hole and still digging. Red’s traditional allies of financial institutions and corporate giants are drowning in a sea of “red” ink. That red ink is now beginning to wash over Blue’s working man allies with increasing numbers being laid off, Merry Christmas. The administration is dumping 800 billion down the hold without hitting bottom. According to financial reporting about ten percent of 800 billion bailout will be used to pay bonuses to those responsible for the debacle, Merry Christmas.
Voters are angry and frightened and neither team has so far provided what is needed most at the moment, Hope. During the Great Depression candidate FDR campaigned on hope. When elected he implemented the policies of his predecessor but continued to sell hope. The policies were to little to late and it was a long haul before the crisis ended but hopes of better times move the people forward.
What this campaign needs is to walk away from divisive electioneering for the electorate needs a large does of Purple hope, a Merry Christmas for all.
The red team seems to be on a search and destroy mission of attacking everyone and everything including itself, a strategy of alienation and division. It seems to be an attempt at divide and conquer through a smokescreen, which hides real issues. The blue team quickly capitalizes of Red’s alienation an draws in the disenchanted with platitudes of inclusion and change, another smokescreen hiding challenges that will play out long after the election.
The country is in an expanding two front shooting war along with its economic melt down. Both the Red and Blue teams blame the current administration for the problems. It can be argued that the present administration contributed to the current tales of woe. The truth is, however, that the administration inherited years of bad Purple (Red plus Blue) policies and did little address the root causes. In the race for free lodging at the White House, neither team is adequately dealing with the real need of this campaign.
The country is ten trillion dollars in debt and expects to spend a trillion dollars above its income next year. While decrying Wall Street’s embrace of debt as the cause of the current economic crisis the government is in the same hole and still digging. Red’s traditional allies of financial institutions and corporate giants are drowning in a sea of “red” ink. That red ink is now beginning to wash over Blue’s working man allies with increasing numbers being laid off, Merry Christmas. The administration is dumping 800 billion down the hold without hitting bottom. According to financial reporting about ten percent of 800 billion bailout will be used to pay bonuses to those responsible for the debacle, Merry Christmas.
Voters are angry and frightened and neither team has so far provided what is needed most at the moment, Hope. During the Great Depression candidate FDR campaigned on hope. When elected he implemented the policies of his predecessor but continued to sell hope. The policies were to little to late and it was a long haul before the crisis ended but hopes of better times move the people forward.
What this campaign needs is to walk away from divisive electioneering for the electorate needs a large does of Purple hope, a Merry Christmas for all.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
October Surprise
In America electioneering has become a never-ending ritual. The smoke from campaign fireworks still floats in the air when the future candidates begin to position themselves for the next election. A campaign industry has grown up around American elections. The collective cost of one campaign season could be in the billions. College students can now get a degree in campaign management. Consultants of every discipline analyze and manipulate every thought, sign and utterance calling the resulting deceptions “spin.”
Whether incumbent or challenger, underdogs hope for an “October Surprise” to save their floundering campaign fortunes. October surprises come in three basic versions. The front runner makes an incredible blunder that melts down the campaign. The underdog stages a brilliant last moment coup that creates a campaign bounce as the voters go to the polls. The third version is when some external factor seizes the voters’ attention. The winning candidate will be the one with the best “Spin Doctors” who claim credit for the candidate or tag the most blame on the opponent.
To be effective the October surprise must occur in the last few days of the election so the voters have little time to think of issues and vote on an emotional response to spin rather than facts. The real October surprise is that the country has survived its electioneering for so many years.
It is said that the voters get the elected officials they deserve. This is not a positive statement for an electorate, which does not attempt to understand the issues and personalities or even vote is left with officials who have mastered spin. The victors are often incompetent and corrupt but win elections because of lack of interest in the electorate.
Such is American election history. The current election is marred by campaign strategies reminiscent of 19th century machine politics and 20th century civil rights battles.
The United States claims a democratic moral high ground but the world now watches real time television broadcast of American campaigns. America is exporting electioneering spin to Russia, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Latin America to name but a few places. Their voters are proving more skeptical of election integrity.
The American democratic moral high ground is eroding, along with American legitimacy as the international leader. Voters need to provide an October Surprise of their own. They should demand to be treated as adults and by candidates demonstrating real honesty and integrity.
Whether incumbent or challenger, underdogs hope for an “October Surprise” to save their floundering campaign fortunes. October surprises come in three basic versions. The front runner makes an incredible blunder that melts down the campaign. The underdog stages a brilliant last moment coup that creates a campaign bounce as the voters go to the polls. The third version is when some external factor seizes the voters’ attention. The winning candidate will be the one with the best “Spin Doctors” who claim credit for the candidate or tag the most blame on the opponent.
To be effective the October surprise must occur in the last few days of the election so the voters have little time to think of issues and vote on an emotional response to spin rather than facts. The real October surprise is that the country has survived its electioneering for so many years.
It is said that the voters get the elected officials they deserve. This is not a positive statement for an electorate, which does not attempt to understand the issues and personalities or even vote is left with officials who have mastered spin. The victors are often incompetent and corrupt but win elections because of lack of interest in the electorate.
Such is American election history. The current election is marred by campaign strategies reminiscent of 19th century machine politics and 20th century civil rights battles.
The United States claims a democratic moral high ground but the world now watches real time television broadcast of American campaigns. America is exporting electioneering spin to Russia, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Latin America to name but a few places. Their voters are proving more skeptical of election integrity.
The American democratic moral high ground is eroding, along with American legitimacy as the international leader. Voters need to provide an October Surprise of their own. They should demand to be treated as adults and by candidates demonstrating real honesty and integrity.
Friday, October 24, 2008
History
The past is past, where is the future? There may be more political lies about history than any other political issue. “History proves my policy is the only one that will solve our problems.”
The question is whose history are we talking about. Every event has several sides and a great deal of emotional involvement. In general what passes for history is political correctness carried to extremes. History texts are compromises that glorify and excuse vested interest. During World War II the Allies were shouting loudly about Axis war crimes when there were few definitions of an international war crime. Winston Churchill was asked if he were not afraid that he and the Allies would also be tried for committing the same crimes. Churchill replied that the history of victory would determine who the criminals were and that he (Churchill) would write that history. Churchill did write that history and Allied crimes were buried in dusty archives.
Serious historians do not like to begin researching history in those archives until all the participants have died and emotions cooled. They look past period public utterances to masses of obscure documents that support or refute popular period histories. The vast majority of the public and journalist never search for historical truth in dusty archives but parrot political correct versions of past events.
It is true that there is much to be learned from history, what worked and what didn’t and it requires critical thinkers to assess the pluses and minus of true history and reach the equals of future strategies.
It has been said that Generals always fight the last war, often to true. Politicians campaign on the last election and journalist measure past results against that current election. Both of these are examples of historical mis-direction of public perspective from policy failures.
In the current election both American parties, who are equally at fault, seek to obscure the fact that failed public policies have led into an American economic melt down. A Black Hole that is dragging the world into recession. Both parties are reaching back almost 80 years for historically politically correct solutions. Certainly there are some parallels between the causes of the Great Depression and the current situation, but this is a different world than that of the 1930s. Learn from history, it took ten years and a World War to recover from the Great Depression, that is to costly in today’s interactive world.
Campaign strategist should have searched for some politically incorrect critical thinkers who could have crafted a future public policy strategy. It is imperative that the election victor, not only addresses the current challenges, but also mobilized the politically incorrect to produce a visionary public policy for the future survival of the State.
The question is whose history are we talking about. Every event has several sides and a great deal of emotional involvement. In general what passes for history is political correctness carried to extremes. History texts are compromises that glorify and excuse vested interest. During World War II the Allies were shouting loudly about Axis war crimes when there were few definitions of an international war crime. Winston Churchill was asked if he were not afraid that he and the Allies would also be tried for committing the same crimes. Churchill replied that the history of victory would determine who the criminals were and that he (Churchill) would write that history. Churchill did write that history and Allied crimes were buried in dusty archives.
Serious historians do not like to begin researching history in those archives until all the participants have died and emotions cooled. They look past period public utterances to masses of obscure documents that support or refute popular period histories. The vast majority of the public and journalist never search for historical truth in dusty archives but parrot political correct versions of past events.
It is true that there is much to be learned from history, what worked and what didn’t and it requires critical thinkers to assess the pluses and minus of true history and reach the equals of future strategies.
It has been said that Generals always fight the last war, often to true. Politicians campaign on the last election and journalist measure past results against that current election. Both of these are examples of historical mis-direction of public perspective from policy failures.
In the current election both American parties, who are equally at fault, seek to obscure the fact that failed public policies have led into an American economic melt down. A Black Hole that is dragging the world into recession. Both parties are reaching back almost 80 years for historically politically correct solutions. Certainly there are some parallels between the causes of the Great Depression and the current situation, but this is a different world than that of the 1930s. Learn from history, it took ten years and a World War to recover from the Great Depression, that is to costly in today’s interactive world.
Campaign strategist should have searched for some politically incorrect critical thinkers who could have crafted a future public policy strategy. It is imperative that the election victor, not only addresses the current challenges, but also mobilized the politically incorrect to produce a visionary public policy for the future survival of the State.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Center of the world
Proof of the United States’ position as the center of the world requires only a look at a world map in any American bookstore. Don’t, however, check the world maps in European or Chinese bookstores where they take center stage.
Despite American pretension of supremacy the world is a matter of viewpoint. To the world the United States is just another developing region. The United States is unique in many ways and it may be the world’s most heterogeneous society. It was not always so leading up to the Civil War the country was primarily Anglo-Saxon living in either a northern or southern cultures.
In the post war years a flood of immigrants began to fill the vastness claimed by manifest destiny politicians. Joining the immigrants were migrations of those displace by the conflict and a new culture emerged that of the westerner. The three cultures remained distinct well into the 20th century. The newly arrived immigrants tried hard integrate into the cultures of the American dream. Moving up in society meant moving out of ethnic ghettos. It was the three cataclysmic events of the 20th century that insured cultural assimilation. The two world wars and the great depression brought the cultures together in common cause. Soldiers returned with broader perspectives and joined a now mobile workforce. Telephones and most of all television moderated regional differences, the future looked grand.
Minorities began to notice that they did not have “FDR’s chicken in every pot,” and began to campaign for a seat at the table. Ethnic awareness not became a goal. No longer did the minorities want to be just Americans, the cry now was to become hyphenated Americans. The minorities won seats at the table but created hyphenated social regionalism. This regionalism does not have common interest and form frangible points in the nation.
In the euphoric glee of Cold War victory the United States encouraged ethnic minorities of the former Soviet Union to break away into independent balkanized States. Precedents have been established for ethnic states’ right to secede with foreign support.
The ethnic riots of the late 20th century in the United States demonstrate that the American Dream is fragile. Local and national politicians now exploit the frangible point in order to establish their own power base.
It is way past the time for enlightened leadership to emerge with visions of inclusion and grand strategic goals for the nations. Failure to do so may well result in the nation fracturing along hyphenated lines with a gleeful world providing aid to a now balkanized America.
Despite American pretension of supremacy the world is a matter of viewpoint. To the world the United States is just another developing region. The United States is unique in many ways and it may be the world’s most heterogeneous society. It was not always so leading up to the Civil War the country was primarily Anglo-Saxon living in either a northern or southern cultures.
In the post war years a flood of immigrants began to fill the vastness claimed by manifest destiny politicians. Joining the immigrants were migrations of those displace by the conflict and a new culture emerged that of the westerner. The three cultures remained distinct well into the 20th century. The newly arrived immigrants tried hard integrate into the cultures of the American dream. Moving up in society meant moving out of ethnic ghettos. It was the three cataclysmic events of the 20th century that insured cultural assimilation. The two world wars and the great depression brought the cultures together in common cause. Soldiers returned with broader perspectives and joined a now mobile workforce. Telephones and most of all television moderated regional differences, the future looked grand.
Minorities began to notice that they did not have “FDR’s chicken in every pot,” and began to campaign for a seat at the table. Ethnic awareness not became a goal. No longer did the minorities want to be just Americans, the cry now was to become hyphenated Americans. The minorities won seats at the table but created hyphenated social regionalism. This regionalism does not have common interest and form frangible points in the nation.
In the euphoric glee of Cold War victory the United States encouraged ethnic minorities of the former Soviet Union to break away into independent balkanized States. Precedents have been established for ethnic states’ right to secede with foreign support.
The ethnic riots of the late 20th century in the United States demonstrate that the American Dream is fragile. Local and national politicians now exploit the frangible point in order to establish their own power base.
It is way past the time for enlightened leadership to emerge with visions of inclusion and grand strategic goals for the nations. Failure to do so may well result in the nation fracturing along hyphenated lines with a gleeful world providing aid to a now balkanized America.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
New Power
The western world continues to be torn by self-inflicted wounds of bad management both in the private and public sectors. In the private sector it is short sighted, debt laden get rich quick, schemes, which are driving economies into whirlpools of failure. The public sector has also focused on the short term rather than strategic futures. Since the end of the so-called “Cold War” American leadership has floundered between conflicting policies that encouraged both debt and alienation of friends and foes alike.
Through its alliances the United States’ ego has dragged its friends into unpopular conflicts and confrontations over resources, power and flawed perceptions. While its leadership continues for flounder in search of policies the eastern world is moving strategically into the 21st century.
Both China and India are modernizing their infrastructures and building world relationships. At the moment it appears that India is focused on regional development while China is reaching out for global relationships. Both are relatively new comers to independent power both emerged from the shadow of internal strife and colonialism only about sixty years ago. Both emerged into a world constrained by “For or against us” great power cold war struggles.
China tried to move on to the national stage by supporting nationalist movements of the 50s and 60s but its own political, social and economic development difficulties forced a retrenchment. The predictions at end of the cold war was that China would collapse but China open its economy, liberalized its structure, developed its infrastructure and again reached out to the world.
The vastness of China contains two major resources, natural and human. The human resource provides both skilled and unskilled resources as well as a highly educated pool of scientist, economist and strategist visionaries. It is probable that it is this latter group that is leading China’s growth as a world power.
While the western powers continue to follow policies of exploitation, constraint and alienation China is investing in growth of developing countries. Through foreign aid, direct investment and engineering assistance China is making friends in resource rich regions which will assist its own strategic economic and power growth.
Through its alliances the United States’ ego has dragged its friends into unpopular conflicts and confrontations over resources, power and flawed perceptions. While its leadership continues for flounder in search of policies the eastern world is moving strategically into the 21st century.
Both China and India are modernizing their infrastructures and building world relationships. At the moment it appears that India is focused on regional development while China is reaching out for global relationships. Both are relatively new comers to independent power both emerged from the shadow of internal strife and colonialism only about sixty years ago. Both emerged into a world constrained by “For or against us” great power cold war struggles.
China tried to move on to the national stage by supporting nationalist movements of the 50s and 60s but its own political, social and economic development difficulties forced a retrenchment. The predictions at end of the cold war was that China would collapse but China open its economy, liberalized its structure, developed its infrastructure and again reached out to the world.
The vastness of China contains two major resources, natural and human. The human resource provides both skilled and unskilled resources as well as a highly educated pool of scientist, economist and strategist visionaries. It is probable that it is this latter group that is leading China’s growth as a world power.
While the western powers continue to follow policies of exploitation, constraint and alienation China is investing in growth of developing countries. Through foreign aid, direct investment and engineering assistance China is making friends in resource rich regions which will assist its own strategic economic and power growth.
Monday, October 13, 2008
Great Powers
Since the turn of the 21st century global intellectual debate has focused on the historical Great Power paradigm. In general, the theory goes that a state rises to Great Power status remains there for a number of years and then begins to decline in status until it is replaced by emerging great power states, a cycle of approximately one hundred years.
The current debate is that the United States has had its one hundred-year and who will be the next great power to emerge. To understand the debate one must understand the nature of great power. Far to often people look at shiny armies as the measure of great power. Military power is only one element of great power. The Soviet Union had great military power but lasted less than 50 years on the international stage. The Soviets never balanced all the measures of power to be considered a truly great power. A state must not only possess military power but also economic power, mastering technology, natural resources, human capital and remain flexible enough to grow with the changing measures of power. Most of all a Great Power must have the respect of other states. Great Power may be shared among states, known as the balance of power. Great Powers are not defeated: they erode, unwilling to commit themselves to power responsibilities; or they commit suicide, focusing on past greatness rather than adjust to changing power dynamics.
The Americans are arguing that the United States is an exception as its manifest destiny is to be the global power doling out favors and punishment to the rest of the world. The Americans also argue that no other state is capable of great power. This argument fails to remember that the United States emerged as a Great Power in one generation.
Moving toward great power status are, Brazil, China, EU India, Russia. All have educated populations, resources and growing economies. The United States could be dropped into the jungles of Brazil with enough space left over for several smaller states. The EU alone has twice the population of the United States, China and India comprise over half the worlds population. It is true that Brazil and Russia have development and internal political issues. It is also true that the EU has limited natural resources and is still dealing with internal nationalistic issues. India must deal with religious issues as well as population divided by education and wealth. It is China that is most immediately prepared for Great Power status but it to has internal issues to settle. The American argument that none are capable of exercising world leadership rolls ignores that it may only take one generation of dynamic leadership to move a state to a Great Power.
The two most enduring measures of power are economics and international leadership. The United States is faced with unprecedented financial melt down from its “have it now” debt ridden life style. As U.S. financial institution began to drag down the global economies foreign banks and corporations stepped in to shore up the United States while picking up cut rate plums for themselves. It is unlikely that foreign governments will link themselves closely to the United States that it can again threaten the global economy.
At the end of World War Two the United States was the most respected nation on the planet. Momentum carried it to the top of the hill but “for us, or against us” leadership has lead to a steady decline in world respect.
In the 20th century the United States was instrumental in linking the world. In the 21st century that linked world now questions the value of following U.S. leadership. The coming American elections are far more important than the American public realizes. At stake is America as a Great Power or a struggling state clinging to past glories.
The new administration must lead the public away debt laden policies and toward shared power among equals. Only by enlightened leadership can the United States escape the historical long cycle decline as a great power.
The current debate is that the United States has had its one hundred-year and who will be the next great power to emerge. To understand the debate one must understand the nature of great power. Far to often people look at shiny armies as the measure of great power. Military power is only one element of great power. The Soviet Union had great military power but lasted less than 50 years on the international stage. The Soviets never balanced all the measures of power to be considered a truly great power. A state must not only possess military power but also economic power, mastering technology, natural resources, human capital and remain flexible enough to grow with the changing measures of power. Most of all a Great Power must have the respect of other states. Great Power may be shared among states, known as the balance of power. Great Powers are not defeated: they erode, unwilling to commit themselves to power responsibilities; or they commit suicide, focusing on past greatness rather than adjust to changing power dynamics.
The Americans are arguing that the United States is an exception as its manifest destiny is to be the global power doling out favors and punishment to the rest of the world. The Americans also argue that no other state is capable of great power. This argument fails to remember that the United States emerged as a Great Power in one generation.
Moving toward great power status are, Brazil, China, EU India, Russia. All have educated populations, resources and growing economies. The United States could be dropped into the jungles of Brazil with enough space left over for several smaller states. The EU alone has twice the population of the United States, China and India comprise over half the worlds population. It is true that Brazil and Russia have development and internal political issues. It is also true that the EU has limited natural resources and is still dealing with internal nationalistic issues. India must deal with religious issues as well as population divided by education and wealth. It is China that is most immediately prepared for Great Power status but it to has internal issues to settle. The American argument that none are capable of exercising world leadership rolls ignores that it may only take one generation of dynamic leadership to move a state to a Great Power.
The two most enduring measures of power are economics and international leadership. The United States is faced with unprecedented financial melt down from its “have it now” debt ridden life style. As U.S. financial institution began to drag down the global economies foreign banks and corporations stepped in to shore up the United States while picking up cut rate plums for themselves. It is unlikely that foreign governments will link themselves closely to the United States that it can again threaten the global economy.
At the end of World War Two the United States was the most respected nation on the planet. Momentum carried it to the top of the hill but “for us, or against us” leadership has lead to a steady decline in world respect.
In the 20th century the United States was instrumental in linking the world. In the 21st century that linked world now questions the value of following U.S. leadership. The coming American elections are far more important than the American public realizes. At stake is America as a Great Power or a struggling state clinging to past glories.
The new administration must lead the public away debt laden policies and toward shared power among equals. Only by enlightened leadership can the United States escape the historical long cycle decline as a great power.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Oil-igarchies
In “Blood Barrels”, a recent Foreign Affairs article, Michael L. Ross notes the links of oil production and regional conflicts. Ross correctly identifies some of the causations for petro-wars; there are ample case studies to support his thesis. He also makes a number of suggestions for reforms that could reduce oil-igarchies embrace of conflict.
Most commodities react to purely supply and demand dynamics; oil prices on the other hand are complicated by emotions. Most notable is the emotion of fear which oil-igarchies manipulate for corporate and individual greed. When the well-head cost of a barrel of oil goes up there is an immediate consumer price surge although products of that barrel of oil may not reach the consumer for two or more months. When the well head cost go down however the consumer price takes months to lower and never returns to the previous level.
This is neither a unique or a recent trend. Oil has been the center of greed economics and politics for thousands of years. Consider olive oil as fueling the Greek and Roman wars, Competing whale oil fleets of 19th century led into the Great oil wars of the 20th century.
Scholars have noted that the Middle East was ignored by the world until oil was discovered in 1901 in what is now Iran. These discoveries coincided with oil fired technological advances. Britain locked up the oil fields of Iran, which they held on to until mid-century. Germany, twisting Ottoman arms and possibly using bribes as grease, pushed a rail line to the prospective oil fields of (now) Iraq. It was international oil-igarchies that led to the Middle-East campaigns of World War I. In the post war era the British and French divided the Ottoman region and locked out the Germans. A late comer to the great oil grab America had to pay a premium to play in the international oil puddle but it to soon converted from an oil exporter to an importer of cheaper foreign oil for greater profits. In World War 2 Germany reached for Soviet (Russian) oil fields while locked out Japan headed to Southeast Asia. Allied powers “protected” oil producers from the axis but not from their own exploitation.
In ruins of World War 2 protectors exploited producers but the times were changing as nationalist movements swept Africa and Asia. The overt explanation was to throw off colonial exploitation but the elites of the oil producers had learned their lessons well, oil produced great wealth. Great wealth enabled high ideals and low. There was much promised to the people of the newly independent nations but little delivered as income was diverted and negotiated away by new oli-igarchies.
The flaw in free market economies is that greed is insatiable and the greedy are experts in rationalizing self-interest as the greater good, manufacturing fear as a means to their end. The present conflict is justified by an obscure “Energy Security Initiate” which held that the powerful are entitled to “protect oil” anywhere in the world. The problem is that the measures of power are shifting and while oil remains supreme for the foreseeable future it will be alternative energy sources that will ultimately reduce petro-wars.
Most commodities react to purely supply and demand dynamics; oil prices on the other hand are complicated by emotions. Most notable is the emotion of fear which oil-igarchies manipulate for corporate and individual greed. When the well-head cost of a barrel of oil goes up there is an immediate consumer price surge although products of that barrel of oil may not reach the consumer for two or more months. When the well head cost go down however the consumer price takes months to lower and never returns to the previous level.
This is neither a unique or a recent trend. Oil has been the center of greed economics and politics for thousands of years. Consider olive oil as fueling the Greek and Roman wars, Competing whale oil fleets of 19th century led into the Great oil wars of the 20th century.
Scholars have noted that the Middle East was ignored by the world until oil was discovered in 1901 in what is now Iran. These discoveries coincided with oil fired technological advances. Britain locked up the oil fields of Iran, which they held on to until mid-century. Germany, twisting Ottoman arms and possibly using bribes as grease, pushed a rail line to the prospective oil fields of (now) Iraq. It was international oil-igarchies that led to the Middle-East campaigns of World War I. In the post war era the British and French divided the Ottoman region and locked out the Germans. A late comer to the great oil grab America had to pay a premium to play in the international oil puddle but it to soon converted from an oil exporter to an importer of cheaper foreign oil for greater profits. In World War 2 Germany reached for Soviet (Russian) oil fields while locked out Japan headed to Southeast Asia. Allied powers “protected” oil producers from the axis but not from their own exploitation.
In ruins of World War 2 protectors exploited producers but the times were changing as nationalist movements swept Africa and Asia. The overt explanation was to throw off colonial exploitation but the elites of the oil producers had learned their lessons well, oil produced great wealth. Great wealth enabled high ideals and low. There was much promised to the people of the newly independent nations but little delivered as income was diverted and negotiated away by new oli-igarchies.
The flaw in free market economies is that greed is insatiable and the greedy are experts in rationalizing self-interest as the greater good, manufacturing fear as a means to their end. The present conflict is justified by an obscure “Energy Security Initiate” which held that the powerful are entitled to “protect oil” anywhere in the world. The problem is that the measures of power are shifting and while oil remains supreme for the foreseeable future it will be alternative energy sources that will ultimately reduce petro-wars.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Challenges and models
Modern regional developers are faced with a multitude of challenges and often have limited human and economic resources to craft solutions.
Historic development progressed at a much slower pace. At the beginning of the 19th century ideas were shared at a walking pace, by the start of 20th century knowledge was traveling by steam and along copper wires. Now at the beginning of the 21st century distance has become virtually immaterial and information circles the globe in milliseconds. Today no point on earth remains immune from information overload. During the “DarkAges” elites were able to restrict the flow of information and ration it out for their own benefit. Today’s elities continue to try to restrict the free exchange of information in a vain attempt to hold their positions. Fortunately for the people information can now flow around, over and through their fragile nets of self-interest.
For regional developers this is both a boon and a curse because the information overflow is simultaneously valuable and worthless. Development requires one element that is often is short supply, critical thinkers who will apply objective analysis and recommend ethical solutions. It is a natural and valid course of action to look to the past for developmental models, however the past may also be a trap.
There can be little argument that during the 20th century the United States was leading development through a series of revolutionary changes. America converted its natural resources to great wealth and power. It has become evident in the 21st century that America achieved much of its innovative reputation based on flawed assumptions, individual greed, self-promotion and creative deception. In the process America squandered its resources and polluted its environment. The nation corrupted its culture from one of honest work and business integrity to one of shortsighted self-interest and duplicity.
In post World War II an American oil-igarchy destroyed urban mass transit systems to generate markets for the auto industries gas-guzzlers. Marketers sold the excitement of urban living to millions who became urban prisoners of taxi drivers. The same marketers then sold the excitement of suburban living to the now prisoners of the commute. The process sold cars, real estate, and commodities, which generated great wealth for the marketers. The end result was grid locked highways, increased pollution and wasted hours commuting. Shortsighted development moved production off shore and marketers sold a concept of an information society but soon information also began to be processed off shore. The American Culture began to erode as marketing sold a “ME” society of have it all and have it now. This led to recent financial collapses resulting from over extension and poor developmental practices.
The point to all this is that Regional Development must consider cause and effects when reviewing existing models. Development must be based on strategic planning, where does the region want to be in 50 to 100 years, where does this plan fit into global developments. Learn from the mistakes as well as the achievements of others.
Historic development progressed at a much slower pace. At the beginning of the 19th century ideas were shared at a walking pace, by the start of 20th century knowledge was traveling by steam and along copper wires. Now at the beginning of the 21st century distance has become virtually immaterial and information circles the globe in milliseconds. Today no point on earth remains immune from information overload. During the “DarkAges” elites were able to restrict the flow of information and ration it out for their own benefit. Today’s elities continue to try to restrict the free exchange of information in a vain attempt to hold their positions. Fortunately for the people information can now flow around, over and through their fragile nets of self-interest.
For regional developers this is both a boon and a curse because the information overflow is simultaneously valuable and worthless. Development requires one element that is often is short supply, critical thinkers who will apply objective analysis and recommend ethical solutions. It is a natural and valid course of action to look to the past for developmental models, however the past may also be a trap.
There can be little argument that during the 20th century the United States was leading development through a series of revolutionary changes. America converted its natural resources to great wealth and power. It has become evident in the 21st century that America achieved much of its innovative reputation based on flawed assumptions, individual greed, self-promotion and creative deception. In the process America squandered its resources and polluted its environment. The nation corrupted its culture from one of honest work and business integrity to one of shortsighted self-interest and duplicity.
In post World War II an American oil-igarchy destroyed urban mass transit systems to generate markets for the auto industries gas-guzzlers. Marketers sold the excitement of urban living to millions who became urban prisoners of taxi drivers. The same marketers then sold the excitement of suburban living to the now prisoners of the commute. The process sold cars, real estate, and commodities, which generated great wealth for the marketers. The end result was grid locked highways, increased pollution and wasted hours commuting. Shortsighted development moved production off shore and marketers sold a concept of an information society but soon information also began to be processed off shore. The American Culture began to erode as marketing sold a “ME” society of have it all and have it now. This led to recent financial collapses resulting from over extension and poor developmental practices.
The point to all this is that Regional Development must consider cause and effects when reviewing existing models. Development must be based on strategic planning, where does the region want to be in 50 to 100 years, where does this plan fit into global developments. Learn from the mistakes as well as the achievements of others.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Cultural revolution
Cultural revolutions
The idea that a civilization has a culture is difficult to quantify but understanding that culture is important in international affairs. The difficulty, in part, stems from a lack of understanding of exactly what constitutes a culture. There are those who argue the one who uses the correct fork is cultured while others point to the production of fine art constitute cultured societies. Confusion reigns on the relative weight of customs, values, history, environments, etc. on cultural identification.
Cultural measures lack of stability and precision of its variables further complicate research. One variable may change without cultural impact while a different change in the same variable may indicate a cultural drift. During the late 18th century American Revolution rebels signaled their independence by changing the way they held their forks from the European style of loyalist. This change encompassed only a small segment of the population in the 1770s. It had little impact on cultural measures then but a century later the practice was widely accepted and reflected an independent American culture that embraced symbolism over substance.
All babies are born without a cultural identity. Traditionally culture is learned from first the family, then peers and education and ultimately societal environments. In the traditional model by the age of 12 an individual’s basic values and culture are well defined. Subsequent life experiences may refine or modify one’s cultural perspective but the basic values remain as the deep bedrock of the individual’s social development.
The traditional models were generally reliable in the slow evolution of thousands of years. The increasingly rapid technological advances of the late 20th century are influencing wide spread cultural revolutions in the 21st century. Across cultures the modern generation is not following the traditional model but rather embracing different values and building new cultural norms.
There is no single 21st century culture but rather multiple competing cultural directions emerging from new generations’ perspectives and aspirations. To paraphrase an old automobile advertisement, “This is not your father’s culture.” There is a real generation gap emerging as the developed states age out and developing states with under 20 populations approaching 50 percent. This causes internal stress within cultures. In neither case is the respective cultures stable. The aging take a conservative view of status quo while youth embraces a liberal perspective of change as having it all, now no matter the cost.
Across the globe societies are fracturing along fault lines established a century ago. States are under stress as never before some are breaking up while others are attempting to apply Band-Aids to gaping wounds. From an international perspective failure to view cultural changes will contribute to conflict between emerging cultural changes. Conflict in the 21st century will be far more violent and less focused as cultural splinters begin to employ the principles of terror as a weapon of choice.
frank
The idea that a civilization has a culture is difficult to quantify but understanding that culture is important in international affairs. The difficulty, in part, stems from a lack of understanding of exactly what constitutes a culture. There are those who argue the one who uses the correct fork is cultured while others point to the production of fine art constitute cultured societies. Confusion reigns on the relative weight of customs, values, history, environments, etc. on cultural identification.
Cultural measures lack of stability and precision of its variables further complicate research. One variable may change without cultural impact while a different change in the same variable may indicate a cultural drift. During the late 18th century American Revolution rebels signaled their independence by changing the way they held their forks from the European style of loyalist. This change encompassed only a small segment of the population in the 1770s. It had little impact on cultural measures then but a century later the practice was widely accepted and reflected an independent American culture that embraced symbolism over substance.
All babies are born without a cultural identity. Traditionally culture is learned from first the family, then peers and education and ultimately societal environments. In the traditional model by the age of 12 an individual’s basic values and culture are well defined. Subsequent life experiences may refine or modify one’s cultural perspective but the basic values remain as the deep bedrock of the individual’s social development.
The traditional models were generally reliable in the slow evolution of thousands of years. The increasingly rapid technological advances of the late 20th century are influencing wide spread cultural revolutions in the 21st century. Across cultures the modern generation is not following the traditional model but rather embracing different values and building new cultural norms.
There is no single 21st century culture but rather multiple competing cultural directions emerging from new generations’ perspectives and aspirations. To paraphrase an old automobile advertisement, “This is not your father’s culture.” There is a real generation gap emerging as the developed states age out and developing states with under 20 populations approaching 50 percent. This causes internal stress within cultures. In neither case is the respective cultures stable. The aging take a conservative view of status quo while youth embraces a liberal perspective of change as having it all, now no matter the cost.
Across the globe societies are fracturing along fault lines established a century ago. States are under stress as never before some are breaking up while others are attempting to apply Band-Aids to gaping wounds. From an international perspective failure to view cultural changes will contribute to conflict between emerging cultural changes. Conflict in the 21st century will be far more violent and less focused as cultural splinters begin to employ the principles of terror as a weapon of choice.
frank
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Far East
Old player returns to the field
Twenty years ago western pundits and politicians were gleefully expounding on the imminent collapse of China (PRC). Today many of those same pundits and politicians are decrying that the Chinese are the ultimate threat to the western way of life out to conquer the world.
China was never at risk of collapse but was going through a period of liberalization. Not in the sense of becoming a so called liberal society but rather a society assessing its future and adapting to new dynamics, a transition of methodology not strategy. Many commentators have noted that China takes a long view of development. The west on the other hand takes an imperialist, conservative view of looking to its past and perceived greatness. In North America strategic planning extends only to the next poll.
Unlike the former Soviet Union, which was considered a great power, based only on a measure of its military power, China’s growing power is more balance with the potential of real great power status. China is not only rich in human capital but also natural resources. Chinese leadership is leveraging its riches through education and investment in industrial and economic growth. Historic Chinese innovation may well pale beside it innovative potential for the future.
The ultimate Chinese great power strategy from a western perspective is speculative but there are indicators of its direction. China is reaching outside its traditional region of influence. Both through diplomatic initiatives, direct investments and foreign aid China is expanding its influence through Asia, Africa and South America. There is no question that this is in the long-term interest of China, but also supports regional development in areas ignored by former great powers’ competition.
Some western leaders are in the process, reminiscent of the east-west cold war conflict, of demonizing China’s intentions. The world can not afford another period of great power conflict, which wasted great human and material wealth in nonproductive endeavors. The forgotten regions of the world stand to gain from China’s development initiatives. These long ignored areas are rich in resources and can with effort be transformed into contributing members of 21st century world order.
It is not in the interest of that world order to attempt to prevent China’s outreach. Scholars of international power have long hypothesized on world power shifts. The measures of power evolve with emerging technologies and power is finite. It is in the interest of all that power be shared, or else it may be lost to those looking forward rather than backward.
China at the moment is at a juncture. China has the resources to become a competitor for power in this century but it also can become an international partner for innovation, growth and solutions to the inherent stresses of the world.
frank
Friday, March 7, 2008
development
The time is now
Centers of Regional Development
Dr. Frank ©2008
Global influence
The international community (IC) is faced with political failures in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as deteriorating regional stability around the globe. The rationalizations for declining stability are many. There is the blame game, “someone else is at fault”, and the solutions game, “do it our way--or else.” Both models fail to consider regional solutions for regional challenges. The IC’s power elite refuses to acknowledge that it is long past the time that they should be concerned with the aspirations and expectations of local cultures.
Western packaged solutions do not necessarily fit all western challenges, so why does the west demand that these theoretical solutions be accepted by foreign cultures?
As western populations age the majority of the developing world’s population is under 20 with the aspirations and expectations of youth. Young populations present local leadership with a myriad of challenges but also provides basic resources for future solutions. There are no western monopolies on brainpower, there are bright peoples in every culture. Many, however, are hampered by their past, poor educational system, colonialism followed by misguided local leadership. It is time to apply regional human resources to regional challenges for regional solutions.
Centers of regional development can bring together local social and physical scientist with public administrators to collect regional data, study real challenges and produce needed practical solutions. Such centers would not only be regional think tanks providing innovative leadership but also educational institutions for critically thinking new generations of regional problem solvers.
Baggage from the past influences future
The 19th century was the age of colonialism; powerful early nation state competition led to occupation and subjugation of vast territories and populations. The 20th century brought neo-colonial competition for resources into conflict with the emerging nationalism of colonized populations. Despite professed lofty idealism by the great powers during the 20th century their struggles for power forced nationalist to chose sides between foreign cultures. During the 19th and 20th centuries the powerful had little inclination to prepare the subjugated for sharing of the world’s wealth or power.
The turn of the 21st century found a world in transition. Ragged victory was claimed in the two centuries of great power struggles on the basis of last man standing. Human aspirations continue to fracture the old order while searching for alliances and new power blocks. The decaying old order offers the only model it knows, marketing a repackaged neo-colonialism of, ‘Become like us but still provide us your resources, it is best for you.” The old order provides lessons of value for aspirating populations. Many of those lessons however, are negative, what not to do. Any proposed western solutions require local cultural evaluation, modification, blending and filtration to fulfil the expectations and requirements of regional populations.
Genie out of the bottle
New measures of power are entering a technology world along an information highway that any can travel. That highway provides vast quantities of data but there are glaring cultural gaps in the existing research. Much of what passes for data in developing regions are little better than speculations based on western modeling, not real research. Assumptions are made on the basis of what is valid data for New York, London, or Paris must be valid for the world. Any broad conclusion based on these flawed assumptions fail to solve today’s challenges. New York, London, and Paris are distinct separate cultures. They display some metropolitan commonalties, the need to move, house, feed and protect great masses of people. Cities of smaller sizes exhibit some of the same commonalties on a lesser scale but they react with different priorities and resolve issues with great variety. Large and small metropolitan solutions however do not consider the needs of those that grow the food, drive the trucks or fight the fires.
Societal order requires strategic macro planning which in turn requires not only accurate data collection but also a high degree ethical evaluations. Attempting to turn macro research into operationalistic public management has limits. The collapse of the Soviet system of governance was due in part attempts to apply its central planning model to all state requirements. Central planning begins to feed upon itself producing biased data that supports the plan rather than honest research that identifies regional issues for regional solutions.
Western powers, international organizations and NGOs provides assistance to states under stress. Often however, the assistance provided reflects the biases of the providers. High tech solutions are pressed on low-tech cultures that are in need of simple and culturally sensitive solutions. Sophisticated equipment is donated when the requirements can often be better served with a bicycle response.
The problem is??
The first principle of scientific methodology to problem solving is to identify the problem. Scientists often must develop hypotheses based on limited data. Such hypotheses are neither the problem nor a solution but rather a starting point for further research and testing to discover the true problem and workable solutions.
Centers for regional development must have both legitimacy and political independence to earn respect as ethical sources of information. Such centers are strategic tools for good governance and regional stability. Regional leadership must plan for the future while studying the past and present data. Issues of human need, geographical opportunities and constraints as well as regional cooperation and interactions provide the input but it is the critical thinking skills of the human resources that provides solutions for today and basis of future growth.
Centers should be established with political independence but with a voice in the political processes. Funding may come from the international community but the organization should be regional in leadership with demonstrated integrity. Possibly linked to the regional higher education system where the best students may not only learn future skills but also apply themselves to solving real regional issues. Global stability depends of regional stability, regional stability can only come from application of regional solutions based on the culture aspirations and need of regional populations.
Centers of Regional Development
Dr. Frank ©2008
Global influence
The international community (IC) is faced with political failures in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as deteriorating regional stability around the globe. The rationalizations for declining stability are many. There is the blame game, “someone else is at fault”, and the solutions game, “do it our way--or else.” Both models fail to consider regional solutions for regional challenges. The IC’s power elite refuses to acknowledge that it is long past the time that they should be concerned with the aspirations and expectations of local cultures.
Western packaged solutions do not necessarily fit all western challenges, so why does the west demand that these theoretical solutions be accepted by foreign cultures?
As western populations age the majority of the developing world’s population is under 20 with the aspirations and expectations of youth. Young populations present local leadership with a myriad of challenges but also provides basic resources for future solutions. There are no western monopolies on brainpower, there are bright peoples in every culture. Many, however, are hampered by their past, poor educational system, colonialism followed by misguided local leadership. It is time to apply regional human resources to regional challenges for regional solutions.
Centers of regional development can bring together local social and physical scientist with public administrators to collect regional data, study real challenges and produce needed practical solutions. Such centers would not only be regional think tanks providing innovative leadership but also educational institutions for critically thinking new generations of regional problem solvers.
Baggage from the past influences future
The 19th century was the age of colonialism; powerful early nation state competition led to occupation and subjugation of vast territories and populations. The 20th century brought neo-colonial competition for resources into conflict with the emerging nationalism of colonized populations. Despite professed lofty idealism by the great powers during the 20th century their struggles for power forced nationalist to chose sides between foreign cultures. During the 19th and 20th centuries the powerful had little inclination to prepare the subjugated for sharing of the world’s wealth or power.
The turn of the 21st century found a world in transition. Ragged victory was claimed in the two centuries of great power struggles on the basis of last man standing. Human aspirations continue to fracture the old order while searching for alliances and new power blocks. The decaying old order offers the only model it knows, marketing a repackaged neo-colonialism of, ‘Become like us but still provide us your resources, it is best for you.” The old order provides lessons of value for aspirating populations. Many of those lessons however, are negative, what not to do. Any proposed western solutions require local cultural evaluation, modification, blending and filtration to fulfil the expectations and requirements of regional populations.
Genie out of the bottle
New measures of power are entering a technology world along an information highway that any can travel. That highway provides vast quantities of data but there are glaring cultural gaps in the existing research. Much of what passes for data in developing regions are little better than speculations based on western modeling, not real research. Assumptions are made on the basis of what is valid data for New York, London, or Paris must be valid for the world. Any broad conclusion based on these flawed assumptions fail to solve today’s challenges. New York, London, and Paris are distinct separate cultures. They display some metropolitan commonalties, the need to move, house, feed and protect great masses of people. Cities of smaller sizes exhibit some of the same commonalties on a lesser scale but they react with different priorities and resolve issues with great variety. Large and small metropolitan solutions however do not consider the needs of those that grow the food, drive the trucks or fight the fires.
Societal order requires strategic macro planning which in turn requires not only accurate data collection but also a high degree ethical evaluations. Attempting to turn macro research into operationalistic public management has limits. The collapse of the Soviet system of governance was due in part attempts to apply its central planning model to all state requirements. Central planning begins to feed upon itself producing biased data that supports the plan rather than honest research that identifies regional issues for regional solutions.
Western powers, international organizations and NGOs provides assistance to states under stress. Often however, the assistance provided reflects the biases of the providers. High tech solutions are pressed on low-tech cultures that are in need of simple and culturally sensitive solutions. Sophisticated equipment is donated when the requirements can often be better served with a bicycle response.
The problem is??
The first principle of scientific methodology to problem solving is to identify the problem. Scientists often must develop hypotheses based on limited data. Such hypotheses are neither the problem nor a solution but rather a starting point for further research and testing to discover the true problem and workable solutions.
Centers for regional development must have both legitimacy and political independence to earn respect as ethical sources of information. Such centers are strategic tools for good governance and regional stability. Regional leadership must plan for the future while studying the past and present data. Issues of human need, geographical opportunities and constraints as well as regional cooperation and interactions provide the input but it is the critical thinking skills of the human resources that provides solutions for today and basis of future growth.
Centers should be established with political independence but with a voice in the political processes. Funding may come from the international community but the organization should be regional in leadership with demonstrated integrity. Possibly linked to the regional higher education system where the best students may not only learn future skills but also apply themselves to solving real regional issues. Global stability depends of regional stability, regional stability can only come from application of regional solutions based on the culture aspirations and need of regional populations.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Introduction
Social Scientists spend a great deal of their time researching minute details within their respective disciplines. They then extrapolate the resulting data into some broad hypotheses that project potential facts for global concern. Ignoring that hypotheses are theories to be tested, biased international leaders attempt to apply the theoretical as global reality.
Social engineering, game theories, and to a large degree political absolutism are based on the flawed assumptions that it is a world of one. There are some global natural laws that apply; everyone needs air to breath, water to drink and food to eat, beyond that it is a world of six billion plus individuals with differing interest, needs and reactions.
Globalism is limited by human nature, which embraces or rejects collectivism, individualism and foreign cultural intrusions.
Social engineering, game theories, and to a large degree political absolutism are based on the flawed assumptions that it is a world of one. There are some global natural laws that apply; everyone needs air to breath, water to drink and food to eat, beyond that it is a world of six billion plus individuals with differing interest, needs and reactions.
Globalism is limited by human nature, which embraces or rejects collectivism, individualism and foreign cultural intrusions.
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